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Tropical TS Beta

We may be looking at another if not a hurricane but a ST on the eastern GOM again if the eastward motion happens and speeds up.
 
The Euro is now sticking closer to Texas like the GFS lol clearly no model agreement beyond day 4 or so

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_6.pngecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7 (1).png

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Oh and here's another view of the ukmet major hurricane it's starting to move east here

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06z Icon backed way off intensity.....still same location at end of run.

06z GFS.....meh...

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GFS is a hurricane basically for the entire Texas coast into SW Louisiana

the ukmet is not as crazy this run at 982 mb, again looks to be headed towards a threat further east though

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_15.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_21.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_24.png
 
Beta coming at 5 I believe

AL, 22, 2020091818, , BEST, 0, 239N, 933W, 35, 1005, TS

Wild day 3 named storms lol

The Euro appears to be a somewhat weaker version of the GFS Ukmet with a track along the Texas coast
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BETA. STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF
COAST TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

205430_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png
 
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BETA STRONGER...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 92.3W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Port Mansfield, TX to High
Island, TX including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay,
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Port Aransas, TX to High
Island, TX.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from south of Port Aransas
to the Mouth of the Rio Grande and east of High Island to Morgan
City LA.025959_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Per Latest Discussion from NHC...
Beta has been able to strengthen despite being affected by strong
southwesterly shear. The shear could begin to relax over the next
few days, particularly by day 2 and 3, which could allow for some
further strengthening.
 
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