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Tropical TS Beta

Brent

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Wilfred is that you?

Thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has increased in coverage and
organization this morning. In addition, recent satellite-derived
surface wind data indicate that the low has become better defined.
Upper-level winds are expected to gradually become more conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next day or so while the low meanders over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the disturbance later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 

Brent

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Euro looking sort of like the icon a very slow mover along the Texas coast ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

Ejects northeast towards Louisiana it appears beyond a couple days stall near South Texas

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_8.png

Headed for New Orleans

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png
 
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Nick_boynton_

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BirdManDoomW

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This is just my opinion..but down the road should it go north-East I don’t see upwelling being an issue given I think it will be going really fast >12mph. This could also help areas who have had too much rain i think it will be quick moving and even quicker should it come inland over the Carolinas or Florida I could see it moving at speeds over 15mph in this pattern.
 

Henry2326

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12z ICON......that's nice......this is northwest of 00z position.

ScreenshotCapture_2020_09_17_11_41_14_348.jpg

It bounces off, goes in a circle, then turns east....

icon_mslp_wind_seus_fh117-180 (1).gif
 
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BirdManDoomW

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Still it’s good news the patterns favors slow movement down there vs it doing it in the extended in areas where it’s not needed. It’s like Mother Nature knows to keep it down there before speeding it way up should it come this way again lol.
 

Henry2326

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12z GFS.....this loop gets even better....I think it's the same storm....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_fh84-168.gif

There is actually 2 in the area.....


gfs_mslpa_atl_fh60-192.gif
 
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wxdaniel

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[mention]Henry2326 [/mention] This makes things easier. Your gif didn’t make any sense.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

BirdManDoomW

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Looking at the crazy icon when it does the loop, temps are in the low to mid 30s for NC mountains north for a couple of nights. Should the storm decide to come, we could see a cold rain event for many.
 
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