lexxnchloe
Member
They look rather weak. water very warm there but upper winds must be unfavorable.
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Tropical TS Beta
- Thread starter Henry2326
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
We know how fast that can change
smast16
Member
Looks kinda dry, and i think there's a front drapped into the gulf, which is causing sheer, plus cool stable air.
Henry2326
Member
00z UK
This is just my opinion..but down the road should it go north-East I don’t see upwelling being an issue given I think it will be going really fast >12mph. This could also help areas who have had too much rain i think it will be quick moving and even quicker should it come inland over the Carolinas or Florida I could see it moving at speeds over 15mph in this pattern.
Henry2326
Member
12z ICON......that's nice......this is northwest of 00z position.
It bounces off, goes in a circle, then turns east....
It bounces off, goes in a circle, then turns east....
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Still it’s good news the patterns favors slow movement down there vs it doing it in the extended in areas where it’s not needed. It’s like Mother Nature knows to keep it down there before speeding it way up should it come this way again lol.
Watch the time stamps henry. It doesn’t “bounce” off lol.
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Henry2326
Member
Eye never crosses the plane.....but call it 'drags' along as it circles back south and then east.
Im not understanding what you are saying...the gif is that a forecast trend?
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That loop is all screwed up.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Henry2326
Member
12z GFS.....this loop gets even better....I think it's the same storm....
There is actually 2 in the area.....
There is actually 2 in the area.....
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lexxnchloe
Member
GFS is still basically nothing
Henry2326
Member
Yet....lol.
[mention]Henry2326 [/mention] This makes things easier. Your gif didn’t make any sense.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Looking at the crazy icon when it does the loop, temps are in the low to mid 30s for NC mountains north for a couple of nights. Should the storm decide to come, we could see a cold rain event for many.
Henry2326
Member
I get response "file to large"....you must be special[mention]Henry2326 [/mention] This makes things easier. Your gif didn’t make any sense.
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Henry2326
Member
GFS looping too
I get response "file to large"....you must be special
My wife says that lol. Not in a good way.
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Henry2326
Member
Hahaha
This is mess. Gfs and icon want to feed a good amount of energy into the trough this weekend but leave a enough vorticity behind to get a system going. Then we get a short duration ridge to it's north and decent conditions for development but that should force it west. Then the ridge breaks down and it should start moving more east. Good luck
Henry2326
Member
Brent
Member
Looking good on satellite
The HWRF is NOT hyped
The HWRF is NOT hyped
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Brent
Member
Like the 0z Euro the storm stalls near South Texas for a couple days and then heads for Louisiana as a hurricane
Brent
Member
Recon arriving may get some news before the 8pm TWO
Henry2326
Member
18z Icon
Brent
Member
Definitely a center on recon
Brent
Member
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty Two, located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC).
Brent
Member
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 94.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.
...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 94.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.
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Brent
Member
The GFS is looking more like the Euro with a trip along the Texas coast before it moves NE it does not make Louisiana as a hurricane though like the Euro
Henry2326
Member
Look at that loop starting....lol
Too bad it’s gonna loop instead of trying to pull teddy into New England. 2020 not being so 2020 these days
Brent
Member
As a
compromise between these various solutions, the NHC intensity
forecast shows the cyclone just reaching the hurricane threshold in
2-3 days and then gradually weakening thereafter due to the less
favorable environment. However, it cannot be stressed enough that
this forecast is highly uncertain.
compromise between these various solutions, the NHC intensity
forecast shows the cyclone just reaching the hurricane threshold in
2-3 days and then gradually weakening thereafter due to the less
favorable environment. However, it cannot be stressed enough that
this forecast is highly uncertain.
BufordWX
Member
Icon has TD22 crawling near the coastline but just offshore.
That eventual fast eastward motion could cause big problems.
Brent
Member
BufordWX
Member
Falls apart pretty quickly after that. Is it because it hits the cold pool left behind by Sally?
BufordWX
Member
On the 00z GFS TD22 looks like it hits a brick wall right before hitting southern Texas. Lol