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Tropical TS Beta

This is mess. Gfs and icon want to feed a good amount of energy into the trough this weekend but leave a enough vorticity behind to get a system going. Then we get a short duration ridge to it's north and decent conditions for development but that should force it west. Then the ridge breaks down and it should start moving more east. Good luck
 
Euro eventually heads towards Louisiana then keeps going through Alabama
 
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty Two, located in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC).
 
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 94.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.received_926336151223494.jpeg
 
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The GFS is looking more like the Euro with a trip along the Texas coast before it moves NE it does not make Louisiana as a hurricane though like the Euro

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_20.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_28.pnggfs_mslp_pcpn_scus_32.png
 
Brent said:
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 94.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.View attachment 48947
Click to expand...
Look at that loop starting....lol
 
Too bad it’s gonna loop instead of trying to pull teddy into New England. 2020 not being so 2020 these days
 
As a
compromise between these various solutions, the NHC intensity
forecast shows the cyclone just reaching the hurricane threshold in
2-3 days and then gradually weakening thereafter due to the less
favorable environment. However, it cannot be stressed enough that
this forecast is highly uncertain.

024433.png
 
On the 00z GFS TD22 looks like it hits a brick wall right before hitting southern Texas. Lol704B36ED-E48B-4748-A8B3-8C43BB6AB6C8.gif
 
Icon and Euro is on the same page by sending the storm eastward towards Louisiana and further east.
 
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