• This website or discussions about the COVID-19 virus outbreak should be taken as entertainment. For official information on how to plan and prepare, please go to The Offical CDC Homepage By Clicking Here
  • Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical TS Beta

metwannabe

Staff member
Moderator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
11,031
Reaction score
18,416
Location
Buzzardtown, NC
Euro and CMC take it into Mx eventually, GFS never really develops it but brings the moisture/rain through already soggy gulf coast and SE...
 

metwannabe

Staff member
Moderator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
11,031
Reaction score
18,416
Location
Buzzardtown, NC
Crazy GFS has a strengthening (nothing like Sally) system approaching the exact same areas

edit: not really strengthening (next frame much weaker lol)
 

accu35

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
5,870
Reaction score
4,619
It may develop in the western gulf but by the time it reaches the eastern gulf the cool air will tear it apart and give us nothing but rain
 

GaWx

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
8,281
Reaction score
17,838
Location
SAV, GA
58F5772B-2D55-4386-971B-D9AA3699A936.png 12Z UKMET: N MX bound

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 22.4N 95.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2020 120 22.7N 94.8W 1003 35
0000UTC 22.09.2020 132 23.2N 95.4W 1001 38
1200UTC 22.09.2020 144 23.9N 96.4W 996 48
 
Last edited:

GaWx

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
8,281
Reaction score
17,838
Location
SAV, GA
12Z GEFS has many of the 21 members go into MX like the UKMET shows. However, similar to the 6Z, it has ~20% of the members coming into or near LA.

1600277223516.png

Otherwise, the 12z GEFS is quiet for the US for the entire run once Sally leaves.
 

ForsythSnow

Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
8,438
Reaction score
13,020
Location
North Forsyth County, Georgia
Ok then. Wilfred or Alpha?


1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico gradually continue to
become better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 

GaWx

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
8,281
Reaction score
17,838
Location
SAV, GA
This one going to be another pain in the tush for the Gulf per 12Z King? Enough already/hope nothing like this verifies:

1600282616120.png
 

metwannabe

Staff member
Moderator
Supporter
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
11,031
Reaction score
18,416
Location
Buzzardtown, NC
Yes. Hopefully it is only because it is on crack.
Yeah, major change from the 0z run which took it into Mexico... you really have to watch anything in the GOM, even as far south as the BOC this time of the year unfortunately

1600282993697.png
 

Henry2326

Member
Joined
Sep 16, 2018
Messages
1,985
Reaction score
1,491
Location
Atlanta, GA
oh after what happened with Laura and Sally definitely watching the Gulf
This is crazy....I really thought it would be the year for the east coast....of course, it's not over, but this is looking more and more like 2005 gulf event.
 

accu35

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
5,870
Reaction score
4,619
With the cool weather we suppose to have coming up, can this disturbance keep formation further east in the gulf?
 
Top