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Tropical TS Beta

Euro and CMC take it into Mx eventually, GFS never really develops it but brings the moisture/rain through already soggy gulf coast and SE...
 
Crazy GFS has a strengthening (nothing like Sally) system approaching the exact same areas

edit: not really strengthening (next frame much weaker lol)
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_15.png
Well dang more rain
 
It may develop in the western gulf but by the time it reaches the eastern gulf the cool air will tear it apart and give us nothing but rain
 
58F5772B-2D55-4386-971B-D9AA3699A936.png12Z UKMET: N MX bound

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 22.4N 95.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2020 120 22.7N 94.8W 1003 35
0000UTC 22.09.2020 132 23.2N 95.4W 1001 38
1200UTC 22.09.2020 144 23.9N 96.4W 996 48
 
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12Z GEFS has many of the 21 members go into MX like the UKMET shows. However, similar to the 6Z, it has ~20% of the members coming into or near LA.

1600277223516.png

Otherwise, the 12z GEFS is quiet for the US for the entire run once Sally leaves.
 
Ok then. Wilfred or Alpha?


1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico gradually continue to
become better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
This one going to be another pain in the tush for the Gulf per 12Z King? Enough already/hope nothing like this verifies:

1600282616120.png
 
GaWx said:
Yes. Hopefully it is only because it is on crack.
Click to expand...
Yeah, major change from the 0z run which took it into Mexico... you really have to watch anything in the GOM, even as far south as the BOC this time of the year unfortunately

1600282993697.png
 
Brent said:
oh after what happened with Laura and Sally definitely watching the Gulf
Click to expand...
This is crazy....I really thought it would be the year for the east coast....of course, it's not over, but this is looking more and more like 2005 gulf event.
 
With the cool weather we suppose to have coming up, can this disturbance keep formation further east in the gulf?
 
Still a bunch of squiggly lines....would be worth the watch to see it make some of these moves....

90L_tracks_latest (1).png

90L_gefs_latest (1).png
 
Wilfred is that you?

Thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has increased in coverage and
organization this morning. In addition, recent satellite-derived
surface wind data indicate that the low has become better defined.
Upper-level winds are expected to gradually become more conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during
the next day or so while the low meanders over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the disturbance later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Euro looking sort of like the icon a very slow mover along the Texas coast ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

Ejects northeast towards Louisiana it appears beyond a couple days stall near South Texas

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_8.png

Headed for New Orleans

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_9.png
 
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