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Tropical TS Beta

Euro and CMC take it into Mx eventually, GFS never really develops it but brings the moisture/rain through already soggy gulf coast and SE...
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_15.png
Well dang more rain
 
It may develop in the western gulf but by the time it reaches the eastern gulf the cool air will tear it apart and give us nothing but rain
 
58F5772B-2D55-4386-971B-D9AA3699A936.png12Z UKMET: N MX bound

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 22.4N 95.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.09.2020 120 22.7N 94.8W 1003 35
0000UTC 22.09.2020 132 23.2N 95.4W 1001 38
1200UTC 22.09.2020 144 23.9N 96.4W 996 48
 
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12Z GEFS has many of the 21 members go into MX like the UKMET shows. However, similar to the 6Z, it has ~20% of the members coming into or near LA.

1600277223516.png

Otherwise, the 12z GEFS is quiet for the US for the entire run once Sally leaves.
 
Ok then. Wilfred or Alpha?


1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico gradually continue to
become better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more conducive for further development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while the low meanders over the southern Gulf of Mexico for
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
This one going to be another pain in the tush for the Gulf per 12Z King? Enough already/hope nothing like this verifies:

1600282616120.png
 
Yes. Hopefully it is only because it is on crack.
Yeah, major change from the 0z run which took it into Mexico... you really have to watch anything in the GOM, even as far south as the BOC this time of the year unfortunately

1600282993697.png
 
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