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Tropical Tropical Storm Nestor

GFS just cut the qpf totals big time over many areas. I wonder if that convective mass is really going to hurt totals outside of FL?
 
Nah if it does transition to being subtropical (which is what is thought will happen) I'm pretty sure the center can be displaced. Just look at it right now. Its classified as tropical but the center is not in the middle of the convection.
 
deltadog03 said:
GFS just cut the qpf totals big time over many areas. I wonder if that convective mass is really going to hurt totals outside of FL?
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We toss global models at this point. It’s about 12 hours from precip starting IMBY, roll w/ short range models
 
deltadog03 said:
GFS just cut the qpf totals big time over many areas. I wonder if that convective mass is really going to hurt totals outside of FL?
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Wow, that was an ugly GFS run! Basically keeps the heaviest rain along and East of I-95 in NC/SC! Can the GFS score a victory? I hope not!A6265831-967E-4E01-9D42-CDCE504D8DB1.png
 
I would side with the globals. Heavier rain down east near Virginia/NC tends to rob moisture to the west so I believe the dry slot will be very real. But any rain is good. Even 1” in the west.
 
You can get with this? GFS2F9A886E-C27F-41F2-942F-2F9442F10995.png
 
11z hrrr

hrrr_apcpn_seus_18.png
 
Don’t know about totals yet, but long duration, light to moderate rain looks amazing! And piggybacking on the last few events, this is extremely beneficial!02BF51CB-9567-4D8F-91FA-6A9ED9A56A0F.png
 
I find it interesting that models are showing more rain on the left side of the system than the right side.
WXinCanton said:
Looking good for North GA folks, we might out perform most of the global modeling. Hrrr has nice swath coming through area right where that band pivots.

hrrr_apcpn_seus_18.png
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I just don't see how there's going to be that much rain to the N/W of the center. It almost seems like there's more rain on that side of the center than there is the East side.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I find it interesting that models are showing more rain on the left side of the system than the right side.

I just don't see how there's going to be that much rain to the N/W of the center. It almost seems like there's more rain on that side of the center than there is the East side.
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Look at the radar and see where that heavy band is. When it pivots it will barely move and dump so good rain. Maybe not what the hrrr shows but should be decent.
 
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