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Tropical Tropical Storm Isaias

blueheronNC

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I'd take anything that happens south of Jacksonville, FL's latitude with a grain of salt. Even if it's a 40 mph tropical storm at that point, I'd expect some reintensification as it rounds the ridge and starts moving more in the direction of the shear vector with venting from the trough. We've seen these things get much healthier in a matter of hours once they round the ridge.

Take Ernesto 2006 which emerged after traversing Florida as 1002mb / 35kt and by the end of the day was back up to 985mb / 60kts on the classic Cape Fear recurve track.
 

Shaggy

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I'd take anything that happens south of Jacksonville, FL's latitude with a grain of salt. Even if it's a 40 mph tropical storm at that point, I'd expect some reintensification as it rounds the ridge and starts moving more in the direction of the shear vector with venting from the trough. We've seen these things get much healthier in a matter of hours once they round the ridge.

Take Ernesto 2006 which emerged after traversing Florida as 1002mb / 35kt and by the end of the day was back up to 985mb / 60kts on the classic Cape Fear recurve track.
;DISCLAIMER: I am not even suggesting this is going to happen so do not take this as me doing so.

Go look at a satellite loop of Diana 1984. Was literally nothing not even a TS or depression until it formed near Florida made a run at Georgia and turned NE and exploded into a cat 4. Not saying this is even possible here but that it's in an area with bath water running in the gulf stream.
 

Shaggy

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If it still has a closed circulation at 30N, the Gulf Stream and trough venting could work magic as so often occurs.
Gonna boil down to how much land interaction he has. He stays just far enough east and the chances he makes it back to 75-80 is there.

Then it switches to landfall point, forward speed and how he is mixing winds down as far as wind potential for the Carolinas is concerned.
 

blueheronNC

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Gonna boil down to how much land interaction he has. He stays just far enough east and the chances he makes it back to 75-80 is there.

Then it switches to landfall point, forward speed and how he is mixing winds down as far as wind potential for the Carolinas is concerned.
12z GFS weakens it all the way to 1005mb along the Florida coast then takes it back to 995mb by landfall at Myrtle Beach. Wouldn't surprise me if that pace is accurate or even conservative if it re-emerges over water.
 

Cary_Snow95

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12z GFS weakens it all the way to 1005mb along the Florida coast then takes it back to 995mb by landfall at Myrtle Beach. Wouldn't surprise me if that pace is accurate or even conservative if it re-emerges over water.
That’s counting on it staying somewhat together. This thing is hideous rn. And it’s conditions aren’t improving for the next day.
 

blueheronNC

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That’s counting on it staying somewhat together. This thing is hideous rn. And it’s conditions aren’t improving for the next day.
GFS has it looking miserable until it gets picked up by the trough off of N. Florida. We shall see. At 1005mb around Daytona Beach it may only be a tropical depression or marginal TS by then. I still wouldn't count it out.
 

GeorgiaGirl

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They can likely cancel the hurricane warnings in Florida. SC/NC will have to watch what happens in the Gulf Stream as others said.

By looks, it should not be classified as a hurricane right now and it does look a lot worse than when I had earlier looked.
 
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