BHS1975
Member
Then it has it going into NYC with a 982. Seems unrealistic to me.
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Tropical Hurricane Isaias
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Then it has it going into NYC with a 982. Seems unrealistic to me.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Flood watch just issued here for tropical moisture with the combination of upslope flow.
Insane rates now going to bust the 2-4” forecast with this initial upslope
Shaggy
Member
I feel like the bust potential here is on the upside. We are expecting a strong TS and gusts 40 to 50s and a few inches of rain.
If this intensifies up to landfall and makes it back to even 75 to 80mph then our weather only increases.
If this intensifies up to landfall and makes it back to even 75 to 80mph then our weather only increases.
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Stormsfury
Member
You can clearly see the afternoon convection in the West side bands over FL, and the Eastern GOM flare and rapid east moving blow off from the cells including one near the convection blob that is Isaias...
With that side, RECON has found a large area of 65kt+ FL Level vectors well away from the LLC closer to the mid level center.
The shear is keeping Isaias in check meanwhile seemingly giving Isaias an environment to produce exceptionally strong convection
With that side, RECON has found a large area of 65kt+ FL Level vectors well away from the LLC closer to the mid level center.
The shear is keeping Isaias in check meanwhile seemingly giving Isaias an environment to produce exceptionally strong convection
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Nothing like having basically every computer model put the center of Isaias over your house in less than 36 hours as an intensifying hurricane.
Cary_Snow95
Member
I’m just hoping beaches are able to reopen fairly quickly upon exit of Isaias
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Based on ATCF, like the next advisory is going to peg Isaias as a 60 kt/70 mph tropical storm w/ a minimum central pressure of 994mb. Hurricane warnings may be on the way for parts of southern North & South Carolina
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I am more worried about it for us in Wake than at the beach. It looks like it will be worse here.
Shaggy
Member
This expanding windfield on the east side could play havoc as this thing rides up 95.
I think us here (by looking at current model runs) are going to be too far east to catch anything bad.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm in Fayetteville, looks like I'm gonna get smoked.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
That's what I am worried about, too. What's it going to do in between Florida and here, especially with the track once it comes in NC.
Could we see heavy rain in Clarendon and Orangeburg counties in SC? I’m confused because now models are moving the rain toward the coast.
Icyclone aborting his intercept.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah between I95 and 17 is gonna have a rough stretch of weather.
Downeastnc
Member
westerly shear still strong, look at the thunderstorms tops on the west coast of Florida getting blown off....so holding steady is about the best one could expect and if the MLC flare ups back off at all this is a naked swirl again...still if it can maintain for another 12-18 hrs there will be a window for this thing to get its crap together into landfall.
Stormsfury
Member
westerly shear still strong, look at the thunderstorms tops on the west coast of Florida getting blown off....so holding steady is about the best one could expect and if the MLC flare ups back off at all this is a naked swirl again...still if it can maintain for another 12-18 hrs there will be a window for this thing to get its crap together into landfall.
I said the same thing on the last page,?
Yeah, it's undercutting shear beneath the outflow higher up.
That same shear though seems to be aiding in vigorous convection. Isaias has a stout circulation and PWATS exceed 3"!
It comes down now to how far west the LLC can get before the recurve back begins...
Shaggy
Member
Yeah at this point I no longer think the LLC will tuck under or be pulled under the MLC. Just too much shear. If the LLC doesnt turn north by the time it reaches the space coast then it will have alot less.water to work with once it turns that corner and starts heading north.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
For folks in NC & SC, here's a zoomed in look at the Tropical Storm Force (34 knot+) wind probabilities for Isaias, created using python.
I'll update this graphic after new probabilities come out following the 5pm advisory.
I'll update this graphic after new probabilities come out following the 5pm advisory.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You're gonna be right on the western edge of the heaviest banding, I'd certainly say there will be some significant rainfall there
Here are the latest alerts, the flash flood watches have extended all the way into Wilkes county.
I think with the trajectory of the coastline and current stirring currents, it stays offshore, maybe just offshore but should stay over water imho
Nice touch
It does look better but it’s getting blasted as well by shear. Those tops are getting sheared off quickly once they go up over FL right now. I still think this is a big deal for y’all in the Carolinas.
And that little area of nothing in the far northeast part of NC is where I am. Nada. Bupkis.
Shaggy
Member
I know we may be getting nam'd but at 20hrs out it pops 978 before going back up 981 so far at 18z
Shaggy
Member
NAM close to euro location at landfall but down to 969.......ruh roh
Shaggy
Member
blueheronNC
Member
Shaggy
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not sure if it was posted yet, but here's the 12z EPS
Downeastnc
Member
Every year I plan on getting one and dont, cause even Irene only put the power out for 24 hrs.....
Yeah that run would be lights out for many
blueheronNC
Member
Game of inches but any degree of relocation offshore keeps this over water for much longer given angle of GA / Carolina coast. Not good.
SimeonNC
Member
I'm assuming that the local NWS offices in the mountain and NW piedmont counties see precip making it further west than modeled, either that or those watches are unrelated to Isaias.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Hurricane watches have been hoisted
"A Hurricane Watch is in effect from South Santee River South
Carolina to Surf City North Carolina."
"A Hurricane Watch is in effect from South Santee River South
Carolina to Surf City North Carolina."
Hurricane watches up for portions of the North Carolina coast.