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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Literally went to another tab for a bit and came back to see that this is apparently an 80mph hurricane now. In the span of an hour we already exceeded the maximum intensity forecast...
 
SimeonNC said:
Literally went to another tab for a bit and came back to see that this is apparently an 80mph hurricane now. In the span of an hour we already exceeded the maximum intensity forecast...
Click to expand...

To be fair the 11pm was a copy paste lol
 
snowlover91 said:
FWIW the para GFS has been consistently showing this getting into the 960-970s at peak strength.
Click to expand...

Sure the Ukie had a high end Cat 2 maybe Cat 3 into NC last night.....but the consensus was TS maybe weak cane at best....the current ICON hasa 1005mb low over Washington NC.....GFS looks like a solid IBX hit....MHX to Nags Head...going to be a long 3.5 days but looks like a daytime hit WOOOHOOOO I hate them at night....also not kidding around sucker is scooting

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_14.png
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_15.png
 
Brent said:
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Yeah ok NHC they only strengthen it 5 mph lol
Click to expand...

Pressure is still high probably would see it use this energy to grow the core and that probably would keep it fairly steady unless it stays a extremely small storm which seems unlikely.....still saying stuff like little change is strength is forecast just sets them up for eating those words if its 120 mph by 11 am tomorrow.
 
Ukmet is likely a major into NC 947 mb and then it basically hits NJ

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2020 0 20.0N 71.3W 1002 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 12 21.4N 73.6W 997 49
0000UTC 01.08.2020 24 23.0N 75.4W 992 57
1200UTC 01.08.2020 36 24.7N 77.1W 987 60
0000UTC 02.08.2020 48 25.9N 78.0W 980 61
1200UTC 02.08.2020 60 27.2N 78.4W 975 61
0000UTC 03.08.2020 72 28.6N 78.8W 968 69
1200UTC 03.08.2020 84 30.0N 78.9W 967 69
0000UTC 04.08.2020 96 31.8N 78.3W 959 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 108 34.7N 77.1W 947 74
0000UTC 05.08.2020 120 38.8N 74.8W 964 70
1200UTC 05.08.2020 132 42.8N 71.6W 978 57
0000UTC 06.08.2020 144 45.9N 68.9W 996 33
Screenshot_20200731-001414.png
Screenshot_20200731-001803.png
 
Last edited:
Brent said:
Ukmet is likely a major into NC 947 mb and then it basically hits NJ

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 71.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.07.2020 0 20.0N 71.3W 1002 44
1200UTC 31.07.2020 12 21.4N 73.6W 997 49
0000UTC 01.08.2020 24 23.0N 75.4W 992 57
1200UTC 01.08.2020 36 24.7N 77.1W 987 60
0000UTC 02.08.2020 48 25.9N 78.0W 980 61
1200UTC 02.08.2020 60 27.2N 78.4W 975 61
0000UTC 03.08.2020 72 28.6N 78.8W 968 69
1200UTC 03.08.2020 84 30.0N 78.9W 967 69
0000UTC 04.08.2020 96 31.8N 78.3W 959 77
1200UTC 04.08.2020 108 34.7N 77.1W 947 74
0000UTC 05.08.2020 120 38.8N 74.8W 964 70
1200UTC 05.08.2020 132 42.8N 71.6W 978 57
0000UTC 06.08.2020 144 45.9N 68.9W 996 33
Click to expand...

yeah this is a monster eastern NC hit.....this would put the power out for awhile

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020073100_108_480_379.png

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020073100_114_480_379.png
 
Euro barely not hitting FL pretty much the same been closer to FL than the GFS and Ukmetecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_4.png
 
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