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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

GaWx said:
Webb,
What do you think about the storm surge at Charleston worst case scenario? Do you think it will be anywhere near Irma, which was only a TS when it was at its closest to CHS inland in N FL and yet CHS had at 4.7 feet its highest storm surge since Hugo and even higher than Matthew!
Thanks.

Edit to @Stormsfury since he's from the area and is quite knowledgeable.

My gut says it can't be nearly as high as Irma and yet I never thought Irma's surge was going to exceed Matthew, especially with it only a TS and hundreds of miles away at closest approach. So, I'm a bit gunshy.

https://www.weather.gov/chs/TropicalStormIrma-Sep2017
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Storm surge warnings here 2-4 feet would pile some water up but it's the expected rainfall that could coincide with high tide which is already running higher than normal which would create an exceptional flooding event in the downtown Charleston region.
Storm surge itself won't be nowhere near as high as Irma was... Isaias never got strong enough to generate the swells Irma or even Matthew for that matter.
 
989 center last pass.....but since they have had issues might be to low, but it looks better and storms are working slowly around the NW corner so maybe its right
 
Stormsfury said:
Storm surge warnings here 2-4 feet would pile some water up but it's the expected rainfall that could coincide with high tide which is already running higher than normal which would create an exceptional flooding event in the downtown Charleston region.
Storm surge itself won't be nowhere near as high as Irma was... Isaias never got strong enough to generate the swells Irma or even Matthew for that matter.
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Thanks. I just finished some new research and would like to share it with you, @Webberweather53, and others. I just learned something new. In case y'all don't know about it :

- The highest CHS Irma storm tide was 9.92 feet, which was the 3rd highest on record since 1899, with only Hugo at 12.52 feet and the 8/11/1940 hurricane at 10.23 feet higher. Matthew's peak storm tide was 9.29 feet.

- Keep in mind that the Irma 9.92 feet was, of course, not the actual storm surge. Rather it was the normal astronomical tide plus storm surge. Without any storm surge, that tide would have peaked a little under 6 feet.

- I just discovered that Matthew's peak storm surge, itself, was actually higher than Irma's at CHS:

https://www.weather.gov/chs/HurricaneMatthew-Oct2016

So, Matthew's peak storm surge was 6.2 feet while Irma's peak storm surge was a good bit lower at 4.87 feet. But Matthew's peak storm surge didn't occur as close to high tide as Irma's peak. So, that's why Irma's storm tide was over a half foot higher than Matthew's at CHS.
 
tramadoc said:
What makes you so sure of that?
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@Ollie Williams explained it much better than I would ever be able to but mainly the synoptic setup along with the storm interacting with the trough. I personally think that heavy rains/slightly breezy conditions will reach as far as GSO through Concord and Union/Anson counties that depends of how far inland the center ends up being though.
 
Shaggy said:
So averaging out the gfs, icon, 3k, euro, and ukie it looks like a MB to southport average landfall point correct?
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Yeah, about that. N.C./SC line looks like good bet.

Here is where 18z Euro makes landfall.
2835708B-3F3D-4B2B-A298-56F21CBBCE56.png
 
LithiaWx said:
Looks like more of a chance at a big letdown for the Carolinas unless you’re on the coast.
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I think it's going to be the worse where it comes in at southern NC near Wilmington and the NC and SC border. But after that it looks like the worse of it is going to be between 95 and US1 instead of at the coast.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
It rained more here in a thunderstorm Friday night than those totals along the 95 corridor. Are those legit or the NWS going on the low end?
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Considering it will be moving rapidly across the state those numbers might be on the high side.
 
This looks about right.

4319b54d85992d3ed2e101e5d39155c1.jpg



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With the real possibility of it being a hurricane if it ends up east of forecast more over Wilmington or east as a deeper system feels the trough more?
 
Shaggy said:
With the real possibility of it being a hurricane if it ends up east of forecast more over Wilmington or east as a deeper system feels the trough more?
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I dont think it will move much at this point anywhere from dragging up the SE coast to maybe as far east as MHX and over the sounds, but it would be a major bust at this point to see it move east of NC all together, the east side of the NHC cone is inside Hatteras....so that would be a fairly big miss in this range. That said we have seen them do that before.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Transverse banding is looking amazing on Isaias, probably signaling that the environment it’s in is improving hella quick, probably gonna see some decent strengthening
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Over-performing TCs is the theme these days.


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000
WTNT34 KNHC 030242
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020

...ISAIAS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES
THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 79.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Fenwick
Island Delaware, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. A
Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the Chesapeake Bay
from Smith Point southward.
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blueheronNC said:
Apparent center of circulation on radar seems to be a fake-out. Here’s the latest vortex fix from recon with a radar at the exact same time. The center is still south and west of the transverse band.

View attachment 45881
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Still not stacked BUT the MLC is better defined and at least appears less impacted by shear.....so I would think it is slowly stacking itself back up....but once it gets north of FL off GA/SC I worry there is a chance this thing is able to cash in on the deep warm water.....most people are expecting a TS here, its business as usual really, stores had no run on them, all the extra water Food Lion had out was untouched....my fear is people go to sleep Monday night expecting 70 mph Isaias and wake up to winds from 100-110 mph Isaias.....
 
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