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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Brick Tamland said:
Not seeing that on the models.
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Well then you need new models or new glasses.

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Brick Tamland said:
What model is that? Euro seemed to be further west. And you can stop with the attitude.
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Attitude? Moi? Maybe if you would post something with graphics and stop parroting what you read on AmWx instead of wishcasting every time a winter storm or hurricane comes through, you might be given some quarter. As it is, this is your normal MO. The problems is... nevermind.


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Brick Tamland said:
I was just saying what I thought based on the models, especially the Euro
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Yeah a few models are that far west. In fact I'd say NHC is east of most models with the track east of 95 as the models are more NNE after landfall right up 95 or just west while the NHC curves it more easterly
 
tramadoc said:
Attitude? Moi? Maybe if you would post something with graphics and stop parroting what you read on AmWx instead of wishcasting every time a winter storm or hurricane comes through, you might be given some quarter. As it is, this is your normal MO. The problems is... nevermind.


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I don't even go to American anymore. Thanks for making my point.
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah a few models are that far west. In fact I'd say NHC is east of most models with the track east of 95 as the models are more NNE after landfall right up 95 or just west while the NHC curves it more easterly
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The NHC also says in their discussion why the official track is like it is, using a model blend along with factoring in the upper air dynamics, the WAR, and the trough to the west.


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Most models are not west of I 95 though.....most are along it, I mean right on it, but that's as far west as any of them go, well except the latest 3k NAM which was like eastern Wake but thats it, maybe 20 miles west of I 95 lol....the further east any models have gone now is the Ukie and HMON which are both more like Cape Fear then just inland of ILM and up over Kinston, Greenville etc....thus the I-95 to Hwy 17 corridor....

So the NHC is literally right on top of the incredibly tight and in agreement modeling, did I mention that it is TIGHTLY clustered modeling.....the chances this goes anywhere but 30 miles either side of the line tramadoc posted at this point is fairly low...there is a high chance that if this thing does not self destruct in the next 24 hrs that the entire eastern half of NC will experience at least TS force gust and a good 100 mile wide swatch will see gust 50-80 mph and thats if it comes in without getting any stronger.....
 
Avalanche said:
Maybe that can protect it against any existing shear?
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I dunno but when you look at the big picture of the latest fix showing the LLC closer to being under the MLC, the outflow looking a lot better....I mean it just looks like this thing is about ready to go off......it just has that look right now like if gets even a little opening its off to the races.
 
Satellite imagery is amazing tonight it looks like the main cluster of thunderstorms is dragging the other cluster of high topped thunderstorms from the East into the center.. it almost looks as if they may try and start to dance around each other around the center ... can anyone explain the phenomenon?
 
Interesting apparently there is a eyewall now.

734
URNT12 KNHC 030503
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092020
A. 03/04:30:40Z
B. 28.92 deg N 079.75 deg W
C. 700 mb 3046 m
D. 994 mb
E. 340 deg 40 kt
F. OPEN SE
G. C20
H. 59 kt
I. 116 deg 27 nm 04:22:30Z
J. 196 deg 57 kt
K. 114 deg 24 nm 04:23:30Z
L. 60 kt
M. 215 deg 5 nm 04:32:00Z
N. 317 deg 71 kt
O. 215 deg 5 nm 04:32:00Z
P. 13 C / 3045 m
Q. 14 C / 3047 m
R. 6 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 4 nm
U. AF303 2109A ISAIAS OB 25
MAX FL WIND 71 KT 215 / 5 NM 04:32:00Z
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Satellite imagery is amazing tonight it looks like the main cluster of thunderstorms is dragging the other cluster of high topped thunderstorms from the East into the center.. it almost looks as if they may try and start to dance around each other around the center ... can anyone explain the phenomenon?
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I'm not sure if I can answer this, but one thing I did notice earlier this afternoon and evening was the advent of the undercutting shear was starting to deflect around Isaias.

Some of the thunderstorm blowoff was being directed SE on the SW and Southern side of Isaias... meanwhile, to the NW of Isaias, I started seeing thunderstorm anvils blowing off more ENE and NE away from Isaias to the north...

While the undercutting shear has continued to be quite strong, it also appears it has been continuing to enhance the vigorous convection via divergence in the undercut...

I've been seeing a seemingly angle shift I the CDO starting to see a push back west and NW in the convective edge and some realignment/attempting to wrap around on The NW side...

Also it seems like the MLC has been moving NW trying to "meet up" with the LLC that's moving NNW... I think we MIGHT see an upgrade to a hurricane at 2am....as Isaias attempts to stack a little more vs during the day Sunday... but if it wasn't for the fact that the circulation wasn't well established, Isaias would have eroded down to a scattered mess.
 
0Z Euro: continues the NE trend of landfall toward Myrtle Beach and away from CHS, but that doesn't at all mean CHS wouldn't still have quite significant effects: Be safe everyone!

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1st shower here from the storm, within a far outer band coming onshore. Hoping to get 1” or so total of much needed rain. And with that, night night.
 
Your morning clown wind map update, tried to get these with the center as close as halfway through NC as possible timing is anywhere from 2am to 9am.....obviously the winds will be the same north and south of this general idea

ICON
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Euro

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2020080300_36_8462_379.png

Ukie
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Shaggy said:
He has 18 hours. Unless he pulls a bertha it looks like a 75 to max 85mph landfall. Woke up thinking he might have already reattained cane status but he just cant get over that hump.
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The window for that is when he is off GA/SC more so I would think in the next 6-8 hrs if that was going to happen we would see signs it was occurring......all it takes is for the storm to drop 5-10 mbs in the last 6-8 hrs before landfall to push this from 75-80 mph to a 90-100 mph type storm....
 
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