Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Oh yeah definitely agree it’s dependent but the rural/suburban in general is pretty accurate.
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Tropical Hurricane Isaias
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I’m definitely ready for a good soaking rain, that can go a long way to tempering the heat in the summer (esp if we enter a dry spell) and my yard could certainly use it
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah we are gonna whatever this has to offer, expecting 35-45 mph winds some gusts maybe up to 50 or so, and a lot of rain, maybe one of us gets lucky and pots over 6”?!
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Absolutely. Mine went from crunchy brown to a nice lake since Friday. I think that’s why the NWS was so quick with the flash flood watch and then the Flood Advisory this morning.
I'm gonna say you will be the lucky jackpot on precip totals, it has to overcome the "Darlington Desert" up here plus it should be racing by then limiting totals.
I go back to school this Wednesday, hopefully, power outages won't be a big issue.
blueheronNC
Member
Lightning strike in convection really close to the core. If ramping up begins, it has to start somewhere.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
New dropsonde into the center of Isaias finds 998mb, pressure is still rising/Isaias is weakening
Stormsfury
Member
I think we're seeing a hot mess of a system here... Isaias is definitely feeling the influence of the trough as noted by the uptick in forward speed here...
We already maybe seeing the beginning of a transition to pushing some of the deeper convection to the north and northwest side in time as it is about to round the corner....
Be prepared to potentially see some of those NW side have those insane wind gusts as this system gets further north and baroclinicity ramps up later
We already maybe seeing the beginning of a transition to pushing some of the deeper convection to the north and northwest side in time as it is about to round the corner....
Be prepared to potentially see some of those NW side have those insane wind gusts as this system gets further north and baroclinicity ramps up later
Downeastnc
Member
This really reminds me of Bertha in at least the way the radar looks.....she had the half a cane look much like the current radar, also the center is big on radar but its showing signs of improvement ( on radar at least) and again a lot can and will change over the next 12-16 hrs.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Flash flood warning! 3+ inches and counting
blueheronNC
Member
The start of some positive signs though? New spiral banding popping up in the last 10 minutes
I think we've been punked
I guess I should probably put the Blanton’s away until I get the deck cleared and take the hummingbird feeders down. Damn. I was ready to day drink again.
[mention]Webberweather53 [/mention] Eric, what’s your professional opinion on possible sustained winds around here?
I think its just starting to get good. Convection shifting N and NW of center, divergence increasing, lets go
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Sustained winds maybe 40 mph or so a few gusts getting to 50-60, nothing we aren’t used to seeing with summertime thunderstorms, the duration though will be longer
First convective band coming thru Mount Pleasant right now... if it rains like this all day long I could definitely see reaching 5 or 6 inches.
I should apologize to [mention]Brick Tamland [/mention]I guess your feelings on storm being back to US 1 were correct. I’m sorry for being so snarky to you last night. I’m man enough to admit my mistakes.
All the counties around me (and mine) are rural. All virtual.
Downeastnc
Member
I agree, radar shows like he is trying to consolidate his center, then he needs to get to work on banding, he may not wrap up the center until 6-8 hrs before landfall when the west side starts to interact with land.....that could also help tighten the core up and push pressure down as he comes in....still A LOT of time for things to go up and down....
Basically a nor’easter. Thank you.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah that’s what I’m expecting to see here, the broader/weaker nature of Isaias is good news for bringing more rain deeper into the piedmont but this mid-high grade tropical storms/low end hurricanes tend to benefit from frictional convergence right before landfall
blueheronNC
Member
Bigger impacts because of full leaf out. Trees can take a lot more when they’re nekked.
smast16
Member
Lol. I can't even get rain with a Tropical system. I'm just going to go sit with @RainlessSnowless & Grumpy in the corner.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Certainly think there’s a decent chance a little more rain makes it back towards the Triad, when models initialize Isaias weaker/broader as it is atm the rain shield will probably tick westward
Outer band inound from the south. Mgr now
Downeastnc
Member
Irene did it
Bertha did it I mean she looked WAYYYY worse than he currently does on the way up...
I forgot what it’s like to be hit by one of those .. should be a nice fun little thunderstorm SMACK
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Bertha arguably isn't a good comparison, it was already a solid category 1 hurricane on its way northward and had some semblance of an inner core and thus was more liable to take advantage of a favorable environment, whereas Isaias is arguably just a mid-grade tropical storm and whatever core it had last night has completely eroded away.
3k with a move east. Still cranks winds pretty good from Wake east, but by the time the east shifts are done, it will probably end up just breezy.
Downeastnc
Member
So what does he have to do to get healthy looking again?......
He is still moving just west of north according to recon so I suppose moving more N or NNE would help as bit as it would get him moving more with the shear axis and be a little less sheared.....the vis loop shows he is trying to wrap up but as usual is struggling......
He is still moving just west of north according to recon so I suppose moving more N or NNE would help as bit as it would get him moving more with the shear axis and be a little less sheared.....the vis loop shows he is trying to wrap up but as usual is struggling......
Stormsfury
Member
For reference, the 06z HWRF and HMON are both about 30-40 miles too far east vs current position with Isaias...
Fountainguy97
Member
He has to get his core fixed and protected. Again this morning we saw a nice pulse but now that has waned. We should in theory see another pulse up once we get that NE motion. Isaias will then be traveling in parallel to the shear which should help limit its impact.
I think we will see some slow organization today up until landfall. Will probably just start looking good as it makes landfall this evening. We should see a jump up in winds especially around the center as the core breathes some once we see that NE motion.
Of course there is a lot of "I thinks" in there haha
I think based on recon, this storm have a chance to move west closer to SC than models projected.
Sctvman
Member
Amazing the difference 5 MPH in speed makes in how fast effects are getting here.
Bannerdude
Member
Some hot towers blowing up in a pocket of dryer air just SE of the MLC
I just got hit with a tstorm warning for storms moving S to N. There is no way this can be associated with Isaias, right? I’m too far north.
Yep! I feel you. Always too far west or too far east for rain, and too far south or too far northwest (coastals) for snow.
I just had a pretty large tree fall on my house! First time ever in my life. Damage to eaves/roof. And this is with no big wind. It came down very close to where I was. Huge boom. Scared the crap out of me. Pic is too large to upload.
Edit: For the record, this occurred near 9:55 AM.
Edit: For the record, this occurred near 9:55 AM.
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Yo... this storm right now