Tropical Hurricane Isaias

[LovingGulfLows]

Man that ridge is flexing. I don’t see a coastal track holding with that. Maybe more like what the Navgem is showing.


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Looks like that's the result of the trough over the CONUS trending sharper and sharper. A weaker storm also gets influenced by the ridge more. Honestly, it's a mix of good and bad news. Good news is if it hits Florida, it's unlikely to be that strong....bad news is obviously it hits the US, but honestly, an OTS solution seems pretty unlikely at this point in time so this is probably the best thing when it comes to having minimal impact on the coast.

That trough will be nice over our area though as far as temperatures are concerned. I feel bad for people in the west though....that ridge is quite insane for this time of year. Looks like something you'd see in the winter months.

 

[tramadoc]

Dang , so even way out in Elizabeth city far from any major job market northerners are pouring in . Lol.

Actually a huge job market. 45 minutes to Hampton Roads, UNC system University, biggest USCG base in the nation, major aircraft overhaul facility, huge prison, giant solar and wind farms. People are getting great paying jobs around here and our growth has increased exponentially.


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[tramadoc]

State of Emergency declared for Hyde County.


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[Brick Tamland]

It sure seems figuring out the strength and tracks of these tropical systems has been harder the past few years than it used to be.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Further SW and now just slightly inland

 

[Brick Tamland]

For NC's sake, I hope the west trend holds.

 

[blueheronNC]

For NC's sake, I hope the west trend holds.

GFS precip shield about half the size of an afternoon thunderstorm though.

 

[Shaggy]

Further SW and now just slightly inland
View attachment 45596

Yeah weakening as it approaches. So where the nhc has it strengthening to 90mph the gfs brings it above 1000mb.

Fun times ahead

 

[Cary_Snow95]

GEFS and Euro will be telling if this western trend continues

 

[Shaggy]

GEFS and Euro will be telling if this western trend continues

I think we will continue to see 2 camps. Stronger solutions a little more east and weaker ones over Florida. Then it will boil down to what the storm is actually like structure wise.

 

[Shaggy]

Hwrf out just 9 hours goes the route of strengthening versus shear winning and weakening.

 

[Bannerdude]

Edit: Found a much better radar product. Western eyewall looking more stout over the past hour.

Bahamas Radar Composite

 

[GaWx]

Good news as westward.and weaker trend continues on the 12Z GEFS. This would be good not only from the standpoint of not having a dangerous storm but also in terms of more members getting needed rainfall:

 

[Shaggy]

Hwrf and Hmon coming in stronger and further east off Florida.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Brent]

Ukmet much weaker and west goes inland over South FL

HURRICANE ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 73.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.07.2020 0 21.6N 73.9W 1003 46
0000UTC 01.08.2020 12 23.0N 76.7W 1001 46
1200UTC 01.08.2020 24 24.1N 78.7W 1001 40
0000UTC 02.08.2020 36 25.0N 79.9W 1001 42
1200UTC 02.08.2020 48 25.9N 80.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 03.08.2020 60 27.0N 81.3W 1004 30
1200UTC 03.08.2020 72 28.3N 81.7W 1007 30
0000UTC 04.08.2020 84 30.2N 81.1W 1002 40
1200UTC 04.08.2020 96 32.7N 79.9W 989 55
0000UTC 05.08.2020 108 36.5N 78.0W 987 36
1200UTC 05.08.2020 120 40.9N 75.0W 990 48
0000UTC 06.08.2020 132 46.5N 70.3W 990 30
1200UTC 06.08.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING

 

[SD]

Ukmet much weaker and west goes inland over FL

HURRICANE ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 73.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.07.2020 0 21.6N 73.9W 1003 46
0000UTC 01.08.2020 12 23.0N 76.7W 1001 46
1200UTC 01.08.2020 24 24.1N 78.7W 1001 40
0000UTC 02.08.2020 36 25.0N 79.9W 1001 42
1200UTC 02.08.2020 48 25.9N 80.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 03.08.2020 60 27.0N 81.3W 1004 30
1200UTC 03.08.2020 72 28.3N 81.7W 1007 30
0000UTC 04.08.2020 84 30.2N 81.1W 1002 40
1200UTC 04.08.2020 96 32.7N 79.9W 989 55
0000UTC 05.08.2020 108 36.5N 78.0W 987 36
1200UTC 05.08.2020 120 40.9N 75.0W 990 48
0000UTC 06.08.2020 132 46.5N 70.3W 990 30
1200UTC 06.08.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING

Then bombs away....@metwannabe special

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Then bombs away....@metwannabe special

View attachment 45600
View attachment 45601

Can we get a gusta map as well would be interested in seeing how significant power outages could be with this scenario.. with the fast moving nature of the storm the fact that it shows that much rain raises extreme red flags on flash flooding potential somewhere

 

[GaWx]

12Z CMC ensemble members hour 48:

 

[Shaggy]

Then bombs away....@metwannabe special

View attachment 45600
View attachment 45601

I'm a wind junkie rather have wind than the rain.