Shaggy
Member
The rollercoaster of tropical season.
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Tropical Hurricane Isaias
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
The rollercoaster of tropical season.
blueheronNC
Member
Inland western track is honestly better for most in terms of piling up rainfall.
Solid. Thank you
Jessy89
Member
iGrey_X
Member
Tropical systems always trend more west in these setups. And the Gulf in my opinion is just as in play as any solution.
Cary_Snow95
Member
So we have 6z GEFS west, 6z Euro west, 6z EPS west, 00z cmc west. Start of a long term trend?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
These shifts are 100% due to Isaias's intensity in those models, a weaker storm goes further west into the Florida peninsula and extreme eastern Gulf, a stronger hurricane stays offshore.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Given it’s current appearance I think they have some credibility. What happens tonight into tomorrow morning With intensity will be huge with our impacts.
Cary_Snow95
Member
6z GFS also took a good step SW
Jessy89
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Notice how much weaker this run is too. GFS likely still has a poleward/east bias here so take that with a grain of salt. Much of the eps shows Isaias at a similar intensity at that time but is much further SW
Cary_Snow95
Member
Agreed. The gefs shows the sw movement
Cary_Snow95
Member
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The models have been bias NE this whole time. For some time they were even way off at initialization.
BHS1975
Member
The HRRR has a lopsided system as well missing FL to the east. This will be very similar to Dorian as far as NC is concerned.
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BHS1975
Member
NAM came in east of FL.
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Cary_Snow95
Member
NAM is setting up to be a big rain event.