Webberweather53
Meteorologist
0z HREF max forecast wind speed, damaging winds possible-likely along/east of US HWY 1
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Tropical Hurricane Isaias
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's the 0z HREF PMM QPF forecast. Expect 3-6" of rain along the US HWY1/I-95 corridors, isolated amounts >6" certainly possible if not likely
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like hurricane hunters are finding Isaias to be a little weaker this morning
Shaggy
Member
Go.figure
Downeastnc
Member
HMON still the most aggressive on pressure fall 976 at landfall....
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If this morning's recon data is correct, you can/should basically toss that HMON run, it's about 10mb too strong near initialization based on recon's first pass thru Isaias.
Yeah still not a stacked system but given it has a small window of opportunity later today when shear relaxes and the very persistent MLC, deep convection it wouldn't take much to reach cane status. An 80 mph cane at LF is my guess
Never seen upslope this strong before with lightning. It’s been flooding since yesterday
Yeah the HMON doing old HMON stuff
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
NHC hasn't updated the corresponding shape files since 11pm last night, the new wind probabilities are generally higher (unsurprisingly)
Downeastnc
Member
He does look worse now than he has in a minute....would be ironic if he fizzles now, especially after doing so well yesterday when he should have died...
blueheronNC
Member
It’s all down to what happens once it starts accelerating in the same direction as the shear vector. A few more hours before that begins.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
He's gonna have a pretty big mountain to climb if his pressure has risen close to 1000mb
I assume this is the main event before the tropical storm gets too far north and cuts off the upslope as the trough slides East. It feels tropical the rates are easily over 2” an hour. This is for areas Charlotte west.
Shaggy
Member
Gonna suck if he crashes. I've been stuck with crap storms ever since irene. Florence and Dorian both were lame here.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah this will probably be lame
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Gobble gobble
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
FWIW, the HRRR initialized at 1000mb and has this at the end of it's run, getting close to cane status on it's approach to the coast
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
It’s been crazy since about 4AM here. Lots of rain, wind, and lightning.
snowlover91
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The dropsonde probably didn't reach the surface at 996mb. Don't think the NHC will go w/ a new MSLP of 1000mb though until we get another sonde. That first pass was atrocious however, Isaias is clearly weaker this morning
Downeastnc
Member
Wow he sure went to hell fast.....but they can also improve just as fast so lets not go writing this off just yet.....
blueheronNC
Member
Vortex fix with radar snap at the time
It's really getting elongated, feeling the effects of the trough I presume
Until those two see eye to eye (pun intended) it's never going to reach it's potential
BHS1975
Member
Gonna be a good rain maker though.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Downeastnc
Member
There is a lot to work with here, lets see how he does in 6-8 hrs...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The center fix was a little off, looks like we are still at 995mb
They should rename this storm to Jimmy V
Can't get much more agreement on track that's for sure
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Flood advisory here already till 11:30AM
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Just a slight westward tick vs 6z, considering Isaias is weaker this makes sense. Brings more rain and wind further into the piedmont perhaps
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Are any schools closed in the Carolinas or have schools not started back ?
For the most part they haven't started back, besides most are virtual not sure how they would handle that..... close due to possible power outages maybe?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
They start back here in person on August 17th. If you’re a rural county it’s in person, suburban or urban county, mostly virtual.
Downeastnc
Member
He had a hard fight yesterday and is just taking a breather....he got really elongated N/S, the window for him to get his crap together really starts another 6-8 hrs.....most models landfall him around midnight tonight on the latest runs so he has 15-16 hrs to go.....a lot can change in that time....
Yeah.... I think regardless if this is a 80 mph cane or 70 mph TS at LF it really doesn't effect what the sensible weather will be in our areas too much. It will be quick hitter with some pretty good gust, that track actually puts you and I squarely in the path
Not trying to derail the thread but that's not necessarily accurate, I live in a very rural county and they are going virtual.... the school District my wife works in (Roanoke Rapids) would be considered suburban and they are in person k-8, virtual HS. Me thinks other factors at play but absolutely wrong thread Lol