Tropical Hurricane Isaias

[Brent]

It begins. I got a feeling there will be more

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning
for the Northwestern Bahamas.

 

[Ethan80963]

 

[Brent]

It is weird to me though the HWRF which is usually hyped about everything has this weakening from here lol I never thought I'd see the day it's so weak and every other sign isnt

 

[Downeastnc]

I am surprised about the rapid development. Reminder: I said earlier today only 20% chance that any US LF would be at H status. NC easily at highest risk right now.

Intensity forecasting is basically useless lol....so many times these things do what they do and the models and forecasters have a tough time getting it right at least in the short term.....if the center had not jumped this probably would be a ragged POS.....this really reminds me of Irene....

 

[SD]

It is weird to me though the HWRF which is usually hyped about everything has this weakening from here lol I never thought I'd see the day it's so weak and every other sign isnt

Looks like both the HMON and HWRF stay lopsided east. The HWRF also has it getting into some lower pwat air in the bahamas.

 

[Ethan80963]

Here’s the 18z GEFS

 

[Webberweather53]

Looks like both the HMON and HWRF stay lopsided east. The HWRF also has it getting into some lower pwat air in the bahamas.

Big sloppy cat 1-2, an NC special

 

[Webberweather53]

Someone must have turned on the westerly shear. Oof

 

[Ethan80963]

Someone must have turned on the westerly shear. Oof

Is it possible for the center to relocate under the heavy convection further east?

 

[Downeastnc]

Someone must have turned on the westerly shear. Oof

Need the flare up to the SE to die down and let the storms near the "center" take over, if that happens overnight tonight then we should see the system really get its ---- together......

I assume the area circled is the "center" at least for now.....if it can move north and flare up then tomorrow might be a crazy day....

 

[Ethan80963]

00z spaghetti models

 

[Downeastnc]

Recon on the way.......should get some idea of where the center is and what kind of pressures we are looking at...

 

[Webberweather53]

This is not a trend you wanna see in the Carolinas.

 

[Brent]

Early advisory nothing really changed

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Really hope it’s trends a few counties East of the OBX if there was counties there you know what I’m saying. A lot of storms do that vs hitting west. Maybe it gets strong hurricane but hopefully no real impact for NC.

 

[Cadi40]

This is not a trend you wanna see in the Carolinas.

This trend in particular would push it more inland correct?

 

[Ethan80963]

00z 3k NAM went nuts

 

[jackendrickwx]

00z 3k NAM went nuts
View attachment 45529

A tradition unlike any other. NAM goes crazy just for kicks lol.

 

[deltadog03]

I could easily see this as a big freaking deal for SC and definitely NC. Maybe brush by FL for sure.

 

[Jessy89]

I think we looking at a cat 2 also.


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