Tropical Hurricane Isaias

[Webberweather53]

View attachment 45465

Classic LOT precipitation distribution there, those usually bust high and further west verbatim.

 

[eyewall]

I think we have to wait and see how the models handle the center reformation just north of the DR in later runs.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like it will be away from NC by Tuesday. I'm headed to the OBX Thursday. Hope it doesn't do too much damage.

 

[Webberweather53]

Isaias is intensifying, multiple surface stations in the Dominican Republic are reporting sub 1000mb surface pressures and they are somewhat far removed from the center. Lowest I've seen thus far is 997mb, the most recent NHC advisory pegs Isaias at 1003mb, no doubt it's intensifying over land.

 

[whatalife]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[snowlover91]

Isaias is intensifying, multiple surface stations in the Dominican Republic are reporting sub 1000mb surface pressures and they are somewhat far removed from the center. Lowest I've seen thus far is 997mb, the most recent NHC advisory pegs Isaias at 1003mb, no doubt it's intensifying over land.

View attachment 45478

View attachment 45479

Interesting, it certainly looks like the structure is continuing to improve on satellite and I believe a few models yesterday showed it intensifying as it skirted the northern coastline (HWRF maybe?).

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Classic LOT precipitation distribution there, those usually bust high and further west verbatim.

Is it possible with the incoming though, Central SC could see some rain from the left side of storm??

 

[Webberweather53]

Interesting, it certainly looks like the structure is continuing to improve on satellite and I believe a few models yesterday showed it intensifying as it skirted the northern coastline (HWRF maybe?).

Yeah I certainly think this has significantly intensified since this morning, something in the ballpark of about 50-55 knots & 995mb central pressure seems about right given these surface observations and satellite trends throughout the day.

 

[snowlover91]

Yeah I certainly think this has significantly intensified since this morning, something in the ballpark of about 50-55 knots & 995mb central pressure seems about right given these surface observations and satellite trends throughout the day.

I haven't looked in detail at the steering yet, but do you think this is a case of a stronger storm curving N a bit sooner or maybe enhancing the ridging somewhat and getting pushed a bit further west (or models possibly a bit too weak with ridging)?

 

[Brent]

The structure is so much better today

Who knew Hispaniola would be the best thing that happened to it lol

 

[Metwannabe]

I saw the Ukie coordinates posted but not the map, almost worst possible track for the OBX.... again just one model, but correct me if I'm wrong, Ukie was showing this strengthening and north turn before most other modeling?

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Metwannabe]

The structure is so much better today

Who knew Hispaniola would be the best thing that happened to it lolView attachment 45484

Getting that 9 look to it....

 

[SD]

Getting that 9 look to it....

Not going to lie a track from CHS to my house to just west of you isn't impossible. Just drawing a cone in my mind that is about the far west extent I could see. As it picks up northward speed that would certainly be less than ideal

 

[Webberweather53]

I haven't looked in detail at the steering yet, but do you think this is a case of a stronger storm curving N a bit sooner or maybe enhancing the ridging somewhat and getting pushed a bit further west (or models possibly a bit too weak with ridging)?

It's gonna be a game of inches in eastern-central NC, because this NWP bias will be competing against downshear center reformation that wants to tug the circulation east. Not sure which one of those is going to win yet but it will undoubtedly make a massive difference in sensible impacts here

 

[Brent]

I saw the Ukie coordinates posted but not the map, almost worst possible track for the OBX.... again just one model, but correct me if I'm wrong, Ukie was showing this strengthening and north turn before most other modeling?

View attachment 45485

It sure was I guess that's why it's one of the best models

 

[Shaggy]

I saw the Ukie coordinates posted but not the map, almost worst possible track for the OBX.... again just one model, but correct me if I'm wrong, Ukie was showing this strengthening and north turn before most other modeling?

View attachment 45485

Its within a few miles of the euro as well that's a dangerous combo.

The gfs was first to show a storm over eastern NC last Satruday so it also deserves some credit for sniffing this out.

 

[Downeastnc]

So now all the models have the center inland over NC at some point for the most parts....at least i will get some rain and all the rivers are at low levels....though most models have the thing scooting over us the Euro goes from landfall around ILM to Norfolk in 8ish hrs.....

 

[Cadi40]

My only hope is that the ridge doesn’t push it further inland into NC.

 

[Snowfan]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 302054
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 70.6W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the northwest Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of
Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines
* North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the
northern border with the Dominican Republic
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long
Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands
* Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island,
Rum Cay, and San Salvador
* Northwestern Bahamas including Andros Island, New Providence,
Eleuthera, Abacos Islands, Berry Islands, Grand Bahamas Island, and
Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of Florida from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet

The Tropical Storm Warnings for the central and northwest Bahamas
may be upgraded to Hurricane Warnings this evening or tonight.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United
States should monitor the progress of this system. Additional
watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the Florida
peninsula tonight or Friday.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

Now expected to become a hurricane sometime tommorow.