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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Just came back from Dania Beach after that first band moved onshore. 40-60 MPH winds and heavy rain. Everyone saw the band approaching a half mile off the coast and started running for their cars. I stuck around for about 45 minutes. When I left, traffic off the barrier island was backed up at the draw bridge. People are still running along the beach.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Well pathetic or not flash flooding etc not to mention it could restrengthen I think a better choice of words could have been used
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Jim Cantore played the pr game a lot better -

“Jim Cantore
@JimCantore
·
34m
#Isaias looks pathetic, but not going to give up on it maybe ramping up again post it’s brush w/Florida and b4 a potential landfall in NC. Shear & dry air are our friends forever when properly injected into tropical systems. Remember we are not in the heart of the season...yet.”
 
The tracks right on the coast will keep winds down W of the center and the storm will be pretty lopsided ( assuming it makes it through the night lol) and a lot of these wind maps are very generous given the modeled tracks...the Ukie and HMON 12Z tracks are the ones to watch out for at least up NC way for a big widespread wind event....that last 12-24 hrs will be painfully long especially if the storm is doing crazy stuff.....
 
I know it's the nam but its noticeably east at 45hrs and stronger.

Also seems the center jogged a bit north as if it felt that flare up.
 
It does have a nice little blow up of convection on north side of the center, but man you can see the tops getting blown off those thunderstorms, especially over Fl. So still dealing with decent shear.
 
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020
2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020

Still forecast to go back to 75 mph
 
SD said:
Guys if you want to poop on mets go to their social media. You never know who actually visits the site. Thanks
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Great point, all those post should've been deleted probably.... maybe the members will do the right thing and delete them so I don't have to.
 
metwannabe said:
It does have a nice little blow up of convection on north side of the center, but man you can see the tops getting blown off those thunderstorms, especially over Fl. So still dealing with decent shear.
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Flare up still holding on and we need it to expand or wrap some. Had to tell but looks slightly more NNW last couple frames.
 
Sitting over the Gulf stream now.

21207506bee7f4bb16f7501b54e99c41.png



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Downeastnc said:
The tracks right on the coast will keep winds down W of the center and the storm will be pretty lopsided ( assuming it makes it through the night lol) and a lot of these wind maps are very generous given the modeled tracks...the Ukie and HMON 12Z tracks are the ones to watch out for at least up NC way for a big widespread wind event....that last 12-24 hrs will be painfully long especially if the storm is doing crazy stuff.....
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Expecting Isaias to eventually become increasingly more N-S vs W-E asymmetrical as it moves north of Florida. Definitely gonna have to watch how fast it moves away from the Florida coast and interacts with the jet to its north, certainly could be a decent bout of intensification before it strikes the Carolinas (presuming it ever goes back over water).
 
Would be interesting to see if this flare up can persist if it can pull the LLC back up under it. Wouldnt have to pull it much.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Expecting Isaias to eventually become increasingly more N-S vs W-E asymmetrical as it moves north of Florida. Definitely gonna have to watch how fast it moves away from the Florida coast and interacts with the jet to its north, certainly could be a decent bout of intensification before it strikes the Carolinas (presuming it ever goes back over water).
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All it takes is a little room and a well timed pressure drop to make a BIG difference to the sensible weather in the Carolina's.....also obviously a storm away from the coast has more room to get that rounder wind field so the west side has a better chance of significant winds even well out from the center.....the crappy part is not knowing what to expect lol, wind gust to 40 or 80.......
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
It is worth noting that if the HRRR is right again (as it had Isaias starting to look better around this time) it has Isaias looking like this in about 11 hours:

View attachment 45754

And has some steady development through the night, so we'll see what happens.
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What’s the chances this pops a eye over night?


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18z GFS rides up I-95 and just like every other model, it doesn't weaken but actually drops a mb or two during it's trek across the state. This may be the rare occasion where those clown wind maps might not be too far off, considering all the atmospheric forces in play during that time and speed of the system
 
Weird, lightning production may be from the drier air aloft (cooling aloft for lightning production from the dry air entrainment) ? Idk but that lightning is ridiculous
 
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