Tropical Hurricane Isaias

[Fountainguy97]

If you told me to find the hurricane and gave me this image... haha

amazing collapse of convection today. Probably see a pulse back up in the next few hours.

 

[Stormsfury]

Well, I don't know what to say about this storm....other than it looks pretty bad right now. Convection is warming, low level center looks like its moving WNW....

My hunch is in about a few hours, convection will explode on the eastern side again once the center clears away from Abacos Island...

 

[Shaggy]

My hunch is in about a few hours, convection will explode on the eastern side again once the center clears away from Abacos Island...

It would be nice for a convective blow up to pull the LLC back under it once the shear let's up a little.

 

[Shaggy]

Sure looks pretty severely decoupled with hints of the MLC in the remaining convection and the LLC being puked out to the west. About as ugly as it gets right now if you ask me.

The head has been chopped off the snake.

 

[guiness187055]

2pm still a hurricane expected to remain a hurricane with some strengthening possible

 

[Shaggy]

So @Webberweather53 what's the Ukmet seeing that allows it to landfall over Florida and weaken to 1000mb and then go bombs away as it races north into Wilmington with a 978 pressure?

 

[BirdManDoomW]

So @Webberweather53 what's the Ukmet seeing that allows it to landfall over Florida and weaken to 1000mb and then go bombs away as it races north into Wilmington with a 978 pressure?

Barclonic processes

 

[Brent]

Not sure I buy restrengthening at least in the short term although it is the Florida straits I also highly doubt it's 75 mph right now though lol

 

[Jessy89]

It’s a tropical storm right now.


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[Cary_Snow95]

12 GEFS is wayyyyy west

 

[Cary_Snow95]

12 GEFS is wayyyyy west
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Look at the members over Florida

 

[accu35]

Im Sure some of y'all are excited and ready

 

[Shaggy]

Look at the members over Florida

Theres you're line in the sand. Either he makes a comeback in the next few hours and follows those stronger members or he meanders into Florida as garbage.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Did I somehow miss the 1:00 PM run of the Euro? I didn't see the track from that run here.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

The mandatory evacuations at Ocean Isle and Holden Beach seem like overreactions atm. Oak island has announced they have no plans to evacuate

 

[Webberweather53]

Did I somehow miss the 1:00 PM run of the Euro? I didn't see the track from that run here.

It’ll be out shortly

 

[Webberweather53]

So @Webberweather53 what's the Ukmet seeing that allows it to landfall over Florida and weaken to 1000mb and then go bombs away as it races north into Wilmington with a 978 pressure?

Deep layer shear becomes unidirectional and weaker than it is now, and the storm develops a nice poleward outflow channel into the mid latitude jet. Some intensification is possible if isaias manages to go back over water after Florida

 

[Ollie Williams]

Did I somehow miss the 1:00 PM run of the Euro? I didn't see the track from that run here.

It was nothing special, while it stays over Florida longer, and is further west, it somehow manages to remain further east over the Carolinas than 06z.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

We will have our answer about these paths soon enough. If weakening continues certainly seems like significant interaction over Florida could be in the cards.

 

[Webberweather53]

I’d gladly take this; goes right up US 1

 

[BHS1975]

It’ll be out shortly

It’s already out. Looks about the same.


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[Jessy89]

If it weakens enough could this sneak into the Gulf of Mexico?


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[Snowfan]

It's no longer a Hurricane. Floaters just updated.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

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I’d gladly take this; goes right up US 1

How far west are you thinking it gets into the Florida Peninsula? Seems like a correction west is in the cards

 

[Meteorologist1999]

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I’d gladly take this; goes right up US 1

I think this model is really underestimating the rain potential on the left side across central SC and NC. The Gfs is showing better lift across those areas.

 

[Rain Cold]

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I’d gladly take this; goes right up US 1

Bet the Euro wind maps show 120+ gusts up US 1!

 

[Ollie Williams]

Bet the Euro wind maps show 120+ gusts up US 1!

Nope,

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Brad P catching a lot of hate on FB for calling the storm pathetic. Emergency managers that evacuated down East are trying to get in touch with his network to take that post down.

 

[Rain Cold]

Nope,
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I was kidding but the general low numbers on that map is surprising, given the tendency for those wind maps to be way overdone.

 

[Brick Tamland]

What's the track look like on the Euro?

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Brad P catching a lot of hate on FB for calling the storm pathetic. Emergency managers that evacuated down East are trying to get in touch with his network to take that post down.

That doesn't sound very professional to call it pathetic.

 

[Rain Cold]

It was nothing special, while it stays over Florida longer, and is further west, it somehow manages to remain further east over the Carolinas than 06z.

What's the track look like on the Euro?

 

[Ollie Williams]

What's the track look like on the Euro?

Here's another:

 

[Brick Tamland]

Thanks. Looks like the west trend has stayed the course.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

It's hilarious that they are calling this a Hurricane

 

[SD]

I was kidding but the general low numbers on that map is surprising, given the tendency for those wind maps to be way overdone.

That track would be a little problematic for us wind wise. I don't like the increasing forward speed #1 it cuts back on rain totals #2 if it is starting to come back together before landfall not a lot of time to spin down. I think an end game similar to Ernesto 06 maybe shifted 50 miles west is likely with the interaction with Fl then last second attempt to strengthen.

 

[Ollie Williams]

The 12z EPS has a good chunk of members further west with a consistent trend.

 

[Snowfan]

Remember when I said that Hurricane Barry of last year was the ugliest hurricane of all time. Isias just surpassed it.

 

[Weatherlover92]

It's hilarious that they are calling this a Hurricane
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If I went off of presentation alone I would only think this is an open wave. Hurricane is definitely generous right now. It put up such a good fight yesterday I was uncertain to what extent it would actually weaken compared to what most model guidance suggest. We certainly got the answer today.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

That doesn't sound very professional to call it pathetic.

Agreed I think the heat has got to his head. He need post little less and just share what NHC says.