Fountainguy97
Member
Well, I don't know what to say about this storm....other than it looks pretty bad right now. Convection is warming, low level center looks like its moving WNW....
My hunch is in about a few hours, convection will explode on the eastern side again once the center clears away from Abacos Island...
Barclonic processesSo @Webberweather53 what's the Ukmet seeing that allows it to landfall over Florida and weaken to 1000mb and then go bombs away as it races north into Wilmington with a 978 pressure?
Look at the members over Florida12 GEFS is wayyyyy west
View attachment 45727
Look at the members over Florida
It’ll be out shortlyDid I somehow miss the 1:00 PM run of the Euro? I didn't see the track from that run here.
Deep layer shear becomes unidirectional and weaker than it is now, and the storm develops a nice poleward outflow channel into the mid latitude jet. Some intensification is possible if isaias manages to go back over water after FloridaSo @Webberweather53 what's the Ukmet seeing that allows it to landfall over Florida and weaken to 1000mb and then go bombs away as it races north into Wilmington with a 978 pressure?
It was nothing special, while it stays over Florida longer, and is further west, it somehow manages to remain further east over the Carolinas than 06z.Did I somehow miss the 1:00 PM run of the Euro? I didn't see the track from that run here.