RIP. Still could see some rain and little wind way down East
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Hurricane Isaias
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Bannerdude
Member
LLC has separated from main area of convection per the most recent satellite frames
blueheronNC
Member
If it still has a closed circulation at 30N, the Gulf Stream and trough venting could work magic as so often occurs.
RollTide18
Member
Isaias has a look only a mother could love. Incredibly ugly for a Hurricane.
Shaggy
Member
Gfs coming in slower and slightly west on the coast of Florida. Given his current state its entirely plausible.
BHS1975
Member
SSTs are running about 6F above “normal” in the Gulf stream.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Shaggy
Member
Gonna boil down to how much land interaction he has. He stays just far enough east and the chances he makes it back to 75-80 is there.
Then it switches to landfall point, forward speed and how he is mixing winds down as far as wind potential for the Carolinas is concerned.
BHS1975
Member
Just got decapitated. FL saved once again.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
blueheronNC
Member
12z GFS weakens it all the way to 1005mb along the Florida coast then takes it back to 995mb by landfall at Myrtle Beach. Wouldn't surprise me if that pace is accurate or even conservative if it re-emerges over water.
blueheronNC
Member
Classic gusty and rainy high end TS / cat 1.
Cary_Snow95
Member
That’s counting on it staying somewhat together. This thing is hideous rn. And it’s conditions aren’t improving for the next day.
blueheronNC
Member
GFS has it looking miserable until it gets picked up by the trough off of N. Florida. We shall see. At 1005mb around Daytona Beach it may only be a tropical depression or marginal TS by then. I still wouldn't count it out.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Are Hurricane Warnings really necessary for FL ? Warnings mean that hurricane conditions are likely right ?
Shaggy
Member
The ukmet is probably the most bullish on last minute intensification of all the western solutions.
Avalanche
Member
While its great to see this thing fall apart, hopefully it can still bring the beneficial rains to the dry areas of the Carolinas.
Yeah, it has it at 971mb at landfall in SC.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
They can likely cancel the hurricane warnings in Florida. SC/NC will have to watch what happens in the Gulf Stream as others said.
By looks, it should not be classified as a hurricane right now and it does look a lot worse than when I had earlier looked.
By looks, it should not be classified as a hurricane right now and it does look a lot worse than when I had earlier looked.
Shaggy
Member
Most models honing in on MB to southport it will then be a question of strength and what it can get together on it's way NNE.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Interaction w/ a mid-latitude jet streak over the TN valley and the Apps will give it a boost and having unidirectional, deep-layer shear
Shaggy
Member
How does that effect the winds being able to mix down?
BHS1975
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The thermally direct circulation and forced ascent caused by Isaias's juxtaposition wrt the mid-latitude jet enhances upper level divergence and entices the development of deep convection which mixes the winds down. It'll be key to see how intense Isaias is by the time it's turning north near Florida's east coast
really? Looks on top of the 0z run maybe a hair west once in NC. Splitting hairs really.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Isaias's low-level center is about 75-100 km SSW of the forecast points for this time via the 6z HMON & HWRF. Expecting major westward shifts in guidance the next few cycles
Looks West of 0Z.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah hard to see the hwrf being right especially with this exposed center.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The forthcoming westward shift in guidance should put basically all of central NC (even areas beyond Charlotte & the Triad) in play for significant wind/rain on Tuesday.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah i was hoping for a strong cat one right where the gfs goes at 12z. My Hope's of that are gone
Brent
Member
This is an insult to hurricanes
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A mid-high grade tropical storm is probably a decent bet regardless, glad to have a significant bout of rain, could certainly use it.
Shaggy
Member
Hwrf is coming in west so far through 15hrs
Cary_Snow95
Member
How west into Florida can we expect with this much weaker and sw track
Stormsfury
Member
Isaias is already reemerging back over water from Andros Island... given it's tenacious resiliency, let's see how the next few hours play out...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
6z HWRF & HMON valid for 18z today vs reality. They're about 100 km too far east and north, expect a major westward shift in the models and official forecasts later this evening and early tomorrow.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Well, I don't know what to say about this storm....other than it looks pretty bad right now. Convection is warming, low level center looks like its moving WNW....
BHS1975
Member
It won’t start moving NW until it gets more stacked again.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Shaggy
Member
Yeah SC landfall and the Hmon stays offshore but stays weak and hits ILM at 1001mb and gets down to 993 in @metwannabe back yard