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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

SD said:
I didn't know they issued the TS watch. The text makes it sound like Armageddon is coming
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It truly does! It’s scary!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Is it just for this one county in your area,? Trying to keep my sister in Apex up to date. They just looking like a lot of rain , as of now?
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ncskywarn said:
A TS watch has been added for a large part of the Eastern half of the NE Piedmont from Wake County Eastward Because Wake County is now also under a tropical storm watch as well.
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@Tarheel1 as @ncskywarn mentioned and other maps show, it's a large part of C/E NC, weird how when you click on any individual county the TS Watch is specific for that county only. Was misleading when I posted that
 
Call me crazy but I'm not enthused by the rain chances. Its early in the tropical game and I remember dennis and floyd very well. Soaking the ground now with who knows what's to come later gives me flashbacks.

Not to mention a widespread TS wind even weakening trees for a bigger system later could also spell trouble if we get a worse system.later.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah models typically don't handle this terribly well either
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If memory serves me correct this is what happened with Floyd in 1999... it got to just off the Georgia coast and then developed a huge rain shield to its north and northwest that reached all the way to southern New England eventually.... there were hours of heavy rain over the same areas before the eye ever got close
 
Chazwin said:
If memory serves me correct this is what happened with Floyd in 1999... it got to just off the Georgia coast and then developed a huge rain shield to its north and northwest that reached all the way to southern New England eventually.... there were hours of heavy rain over the same areas before the eye ever got close
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Hazel as well.


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Chazwin said:
If memory serves me correct this is what happened with Floyd in 1999... it got to just off the Georgia coast and then developed a huge rain shield to its north and northwest that reached all the way to southern New England eventually.... there were hours of heavy rain over the same areas before the eye ever got close
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Yeah Floyd's interaction with the trough had a precip shield all the way up the eastern seaboard while it was still off the coast of Fl

1596383357180.png
 
Shaggy said:
Gonna be interesting and has the potential to change downrange impacts if that center stays off Florida by 50 miles
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Totally agree and the NHC kind of left the door open to possible intensification

Despite very unfavorable vertical
shear conditions of 25-30 kt the past couple of days, the cyclone
has managed to hold together, which is an indication that the system
has a deep, well-formed vertical circulation. While some slight
intensification is possible if the shear decreases, the official
forecast calls for the intensity to remain steady until landfall
occurs in the Carolinas in 36 hours or so.
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah Floyd's interaction with the trough had a precip shield all the way up the eastern seaboard while it was still off the coast of Fl

View attachment 45822
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That’s the radar picture I was thinking of. Of course it looks like the trough axis will be just a bit further west as will the storm track.
 
I mean damn really? This thing looks better on IR no doubt. @Webberweather53 this expansion of coldest cloud tops over to the Florida coast should this help protect it from the shear if it hangs on to the flare up?
 

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Fairly decent wind field too considering what this looked like 12 hrs ago.....just imagine what this thing would do if the shear backed off..
 
I expect 75-80mph landfall. But there’s a very slight chance of cat 2. Probably about a 10% chance but don’t underestimate that Gulf Stream!


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Guess this belongs here too, AFD from Blacksburg concerned with same trough and high pwats from TS for tornadoes after one occurred yesterday in Virginia. Sounds like any storms today through Tuesday will have the unusually strong August shear to work with. Supercell structures possible today based on latest cams.
 
Gonna need tornado watch soon already see hook signatures over western NC.
 
Downeastnc said:
Almost a cane according to recon.....62 knt SFMR
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Convection is exceptionally intense.. the LLC and MLC are still separated but despite the fairly strong shear...Isaias has exceptionally high PWATS (3"+) to counterbalance dry air intrusions, and the structure of the circulation is still fairly sound...
 
Stormsfury said:
Convection is exceptionally intense.. the LLC and MLC are still separated but despite the fairly strong shear...Isaias has exceptionally high PWATS (3"+) to counterbalance dry air intrusions, and the structure of the circulation is still fairly sound...
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According to this the shear is actually decreasing some around Isaias and ahead of it is even lower.
1596389617022.gif
 
Things that make you go hmmm..

starting to think a lot of NC may be surprised at the winds they see.

Fast moving system
Likely strengthening up to landfall
Barometric enhancement

sounds like a recipe for decent winds well inland.
0B372916-EF0E-4777-8DF7-7460161C5CE8.gif
 
snowlover91 said:
According to this the shear is actually decreasing some around Isaias and ahead of it is even lower.
View attachment 45833
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Shear seems to be an undercut because the upper levels actually look quite decent... Nice anticyclonic flow high aloft around Isaias...
In fact RECON found flight level 64kt+ Well away from the center...
recon_AF300-1909A-ISAIAS.png
 
Shaggy said:
Call me crazy but I'm not enthused by the rain chances. Its early in the tropical game and I remember dennis and floyd very well. Soaking the ground now with who knows what's to come later gives me flashbacks.

Not to mention a widespread TS wind even weakening trees for a bigger system later could also spell trouble if we get a worse system.later.
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Agree. Dennis the menace wasn't bad by itself. But when Floyd came crawling along couple weeks later, it was kadibar the door. Worst flooding disaster in our state, espeacilly central and northern coastal plain. Think Dennis looped around forever off the NC coast if memory serves me correctly.
 
SD said:
View attachment 45837
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If the center actually comes in way down in mid SC then it may lose a lot of its punch wind wise especially on the west side by the time it gets to central NC....if the center stays over water till the SC/NC border then the bigger winds over central NC become more likely....the 12Z HWRF-para was IMO about the worst track still puts coastal SC in potential cane force winds and then the eastern half of NC gets TS/Cane force gust especially if this is a legit storm by then.
 
Thor said:
UK been pretty bullish. 981 entering NC, around 983 exiting.
View attachment 45839
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The Ukie has been dead on that track and strength for several days now with only a few variations on it......its also bringing the pain wind wise and is easily the worst clown wind map there is.....but if this thing is somehow organized and strengthening coming in then these numbers are probably close......I feel like people are sleeping on this one and its a bad scenario setting up, weak system not really forecast to be more than a strong tropical storm but people could go to bed Mon night with a 70-75 mph storm and wake up to a 100-115 mph storm that impacts people much harder than anticipated....

latest Ukie clown map center is over Goldsboro and 982 I think in this frame....the frames before and after are similar just more north and south......basically if this is right those that get that core hit would have 10 hrs of TS force gust with the middle 5-6 hrs being cane force....this would leave half the state in the dark many for a week or more....

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2020080212_54_480_379.png
 
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