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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Webberweather53 said:
Hurricane watches have been hoisted

"A Hurricane Watch is in effect from South Santee River South
Carolina to Surf City North Carolina."
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Yeah up to 70 mph now.... and this thing looking to go right over you then me. This gon be fun
 
SimeonNC said:
I'm assuming that the local NWS offices in the mountain and NW piedmont counties see precip making it further west than modeled, either that or those watches are unrelated to Isaias.
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The synoptic setup highly suggests precip making it further west than some models. This is due to the change in the baroclinic environment, by the interaction with the trough, and jet which brings cooler air into the system and forces the rain further west, similar to a mid-latitude system. Granted, the heaviest rain should remain closer to the center of the system, there could definitely be some flash flood warning further west.
 
Ollie Williams said:
The synoptic setup highly suggests precip making it further west than some models. This is due to the change in the baroclinic environment, by the interaction with the trough, and jet which brings cooler air into the system and forces the rain further west, similar to a mid-latitude system. Granted, the heaviest rain should remain closer to the center of the system, there could definitely be some flash flood warning further west.
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I'm surprised Cabarrus and Union counties haven't been included in those watches yet.
 
I’ll be sitting here with a little breeze. Looks like a lot of rain though. Track appears to go west of me by 50-100 miles.
 
52b6353ad2632498aab1879ce05727f7.jpg


This is insane. Warnings north, south, east, and west of me. We are literally the only place on the east coast from Florida to New York without any kind of warning or watch in place.
 
Ollie Williams said:
The synoptic setup highly suggests precip making it further west than some models. This is due to the change in the baroclinic environment, by the interaction with the trough, and jet which brings cooler air into the system and forces the rain further west, similar to a mid-latitude system. Granted, the heaviest rain should remain closer to the center of the system, there could definitely be some flash flood warning further west.
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I think you're correct. The orientation of the Ridge and trough at 500 and 700Mbs suggests that the storm will move NNE with wobbles to the East, and get captured/driven further NW as it approaches the Carolina Coast. I could see thunderstorms transitioning over to the NorthWest and then Southwest side, giving it kind of a Sandy-like appearance (although we aren't talking about the stronger baroclonic and tropical energy that we saw with Sandy).
 
It’s already flooding here with another strong line of storms over Boone and West Jefferson currently. It’s tied to the Tropical Storm and the trough interacting.
 
Here are the updated 34 & 50 knot wind probabilities following the 5pm NHC advisory. I expect these to increase tomorrow as Isaias gets closer w/ some introduction of hurricane force winds in southern NC.


NC_SC_wind_probs_crop.png
NC_SC_wind_probs50_crop.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here are the updated 34 & 50 knot wind probabilities following the 5pm NHC advisory. I expect these to increase tomorrow as Isaias gets closer w/ some introduction of hurricane force winds in southern NC.


View attachment 45857
View attachment 45856
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Mhx increased the wording on my TS watch from winds of 30-40 gusts to 60 to winds 40-50 gust to 70.

Peak Wind Forecast: 40-50 mph with gusts to 70 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Tuesday
morning until Tuesday afternoon
 
Webberweather53 said:
Myrtle Beach. That’s likely where I’ll be headed tomorrow night
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Webb,
What do you think about the storm surge at Charleston worst case scenario? Do you think it will be anywhere near Irma, which was only a TS when it was at its closest to CHS inland in N FL and yet CHS had at 4.7 feet its highest storm surge since Hugo and even higher than Matthew!
Thanks.

Edit to @Stormsfury since he's from the area and is quite knowledgeable.

My gut says it can't be nearly as high as Irma and yet I never thought Irma's surge was going to exceed Matthew, especially with it only a TS and hundreds of miles away at closest approach. So, I'm a bit gunshy.

https://www.weather.gov/chs/TropicalStormIrma-Sep2017
 
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LithiaWx said:
Looks like more of a chance at a big letdown for the Carolinas unless you’re on the coast.
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I would imagine a couple of gusts in the 50s back to 95 and 2-3" of rain possible back to the Triangle. Unless we get unexpected strengthening overnight, I would think pretty non-severe impacts here.
 
Rain Cold said:
I would imagine a couple of gusts in the 50s back to 95 and 2-3" of rain possible back to the Triangle. Unless we get unexpected strengthening overnight, I would think pretty non-severe impacts here.
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Yeap need a Fran/Hazel type track to get much this far inland.


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Rain Cold said:
I would imagine a couple of gusts in the 50s back to 95 and 2-3" of rain possible back to the Triangle. Unless we get unexpected strengthening overnight, I would think pretty non-severe impacts here.
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Agreed, which sounds good to me. I think this tracks just a hair east of 95 just a hair west of ILM. I have no desire to tackle power outages...1-2" of rain with some 20-30mph gusts is more than enough for me.

ILM/PGV could be rough. I think metwannabe could have a rough go of it too.
 
GaWx said:
Webb,
What do you think about the storm surge at Charleston worst case scenario? Do you think it will be anywhere near Irma, which was only a TS when it was at its closest to CHS inland in N FL and yet CHS had at 4.7 feet its highest storm surge since Hugo and even higher than Matthew!
Thanks.

Edit to @Stormsfury since he's from the area and is quite knowledgeable.

My gut says it can't be nearly as high as Irma and yet I never thought Irma's surge was going to exceed Matthew, especially with it only a TS and hundreds of miles away at closest approach. So, I'm a bit gunshy.

https://www.weather.gov/chs/TropicalStormIrma-Sep2017
Click to expand...

I would hedge my bets towards this being lower than either Matthew or Irma given its size, intensity, and faster forward movement, but still being formidable enough to cause issues.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, a pretty significant one no doubt. I personally expect these to go back up once we refine the track and intensity forecast of Isaias
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Unless there are some surprises, I think the probability for much in the way of damaging wind around here is and will stay quite low. Maybe I'll be wrong, but the weak storm, quick movement, and adjusting east with the track doesn't really scream major impacts here, other than a few unlucky power outages and a couple of areas of road ponding.
 
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