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Tropical Tropical Storm Cristobal

crecre9 said:
I can't remember, do TS that drop to depressions lose their name?
Also, hoping this one somehow just dissipates, though I know that is unlikely. I'm supposed to be in Gulf Shores this weekend.
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No they don't. Even if it drops to dissipated and the core survives and re-strengthens it'll keep the name.
 
crecre9 said:
I can't remember, do TS that drop to depressions lose their name?
Also, hoping this one somehow just dissipates, though I know that is unlikely. I'm supposed to be in Gulf Shores this weekend.
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As long as they still keep their circulation intact, they keep their name. Plenty of storms in the Atlantic Basin over the years have torn themselves down to a depression in the Caribbean, only to emerge on the other side to either the Gulf or the Atlantic and roar back to life, keeping the same name.
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 91.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
Probably going to be a messy 48 hours as convection forms in different areas and we start getting competing mesolows within the larger circulation. Likely scenario is we see deep convection form over the yucatan and adjacent waters as divergence really increases in this area. This will help pull the system back over water and relocate the center. As it lifts northward it'll probably still be lopsided and the incoming trough that is tugging it north will probably help keep it that way. By late in the weekend though it starts losing its connection to the trough and pull and may slow down south of La as a ridge builds in to its north. If that happens and we start to get more of a slow west track it may have some time to strengthen before its directed back north on the back of the ridge.
 
If you loop some of the CAMs and 12K nam (I know they aren't tropical models, only using as an example) you can see how the isobar field is often peanut shaped or oblong between areas of convection. If we see these bursts of convection first that means the storm isn't healthy, second it will likely keep overall intensity down, third it could quickly and easily change the end track. Deeper convection northeast with the LLC chasing the convection would mean a quicker arrival in the US.
 
Interestingly, the NWS point forecast has been easing off of my highest predicted winds. Yesterday they had predicted gusts up to around 60 mph. Now they're saying gusts up to 45 Sunday night when conditions are at the worst. Not that I'm complaining. It just means I need to prepare for a bunch of rain vs limbs falling down.
 
SWB said:
Forecast is slowly shifting east over past 12 hours. It can keep going as for as I'm concerned.

View attachment 42525
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Noooo, I need it into Texas. Well now that I think about it, there is likely to be more rain off to the east of the storm after it passes, rather than directly behind it, so maybe this could work out for me.
Of course, tings may still change after it gets back over the water and redevelops.
 
Will Rossman said:
Actually it's shifted west again for this evening's track. Now it' supposed to go up through western LA and up through the middle of AR.
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Throughout the day models have been fixing the center further east. The vorticity maps are illustrating a more eastward progression with the maximum vorticities the higher up you go. It's also stretching the vorticities N over the Yucatan. Also, some posters on Wunderground are posting lower pressures of 1001 and 1002 near the SE Yucatan, as well as Belize. I put stock in the models on the overall synoptic setup that moves the storm N or NNW while in the Gulf, but I think a more eastward solution near AL, MI or far western FL Panhandle are definitely in play at this point.

It's a significant difference for South Florida. We are soaked. The lake outside my home came up a foot last week. An 8-16" rainfall might bring this water up to my door.


North Atlantic - 850mb Vorticity - Latest Available - Large Scale

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
 
Tornadocane said:
Throughout the day models have been fixing the center further east. The vorticity maps are illustrating a more eastward progression with the maximum vorticities the higher up you go. It's also stretching the vorticities N over the Yucatan. Also, some posters on Wunderground are posting lower pressures of 1001 and 1002 near the SE Yucatan, as well as Belize. I put stock in the models on the overall synoptic setup that moves the storm N or NNW while in the Gulf, but I think a more eastward solution near AL, MI or far western FL Panhandle are definitely in play at this point.


North Atlantic - 850mb Vorticity - Latest Available - Large Scale

tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
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From the discussion from this evening, it appears the NHC forecaster is giving some weight to the Euro's more westward solution. But I do know that the convection seems to be heaviest on the eastern side so far. If that trend continues, no reason it won't while it is still disorganized, it's certainly very possible this storm gets pulled more toward MS/AL instead. Good points you've brought up.
 
Will Rossman said:
From the discussion from this evening, it appears the NHC forecaster is giving some weight to the Euro's more westward solution. But I do know that the convection seems to be heaviest on the eastern side so far. If that trend continues, no reason it won't while it is still disorganized, it's certainly very possible this storm gets pulled more toward MS/AL instead. Good points you've brought up.
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Thanks. I don't have a great understanding of meteorology, but 20 hurricane seasons have demonstrated to me that an incorrect COC fix of a broad, undefined COC can have enormous variabilities downstream, especially in relation to weak synoptic features or model depicting over-aggressive development. I've seen systems weaker than modeled shift a couple thousand of miles in the Atlantic when there's weak/moderate influences by synoptic setups (e.g. missing the trough cause the storm is too far south). Then the younger weather enthusiasts insist that all or most of the models suck. I use to be one of those twerps in my early teens, and I'd ghost when an actual meteorologist would set me straight.

As I continue watching the satellite images, I see the area of convection continuing to walk east, but also notice the the trough pivoting the axis of convection from SE to NW. A eastern LA or MI track is definitely favored, but something is definitely getting kicked east near the Caribbean Sea. With all the stretching, the possibility of a piece of energy being left behind is possible, and some of the models are hinting at that.
 
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast from Indian Pass to Arepika, Florida, and from Grand Isle,
Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast from Intracoastal City Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake
Maurepas.
 
The latest GFS has it making landfall as a strong tropical storm on the southeastern Louisiana coast.
 
2 PM update:
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 89.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF MERIDA MEXICO
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Herrero
to Rio Lagartos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Arepika Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Tropical storm conditions in the watch area in Mexico could occur
through this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
Click to expand...
 
5 PM update:
788
WTNT33 KNHC 052049
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 89.7W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for areas outside the
Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the mouth of
the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi, including Lake
Borgne.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana to the
Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended west of Grand Isle to east
of Morgan City Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Arepika Florida
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
Click to expand...
 
Snowfan said:
Also recon has found 50 kt SFMR winds so far.
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They haven't descended yet, so I wouldn't trust SFMR readings. But I wouldn't be surprised if there's some stronger winds in those storms NE of the center.
 
541
WTNT33 KNHC 060236
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND CRISTOBAL A LITTLE
STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 90.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
BHS1975 said:
Yeah weaksauce. Don’t worry we will have PLENTY to talk about this season. It’s 2020 after all.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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It really looks like garbage. Main showers are way removed from the center. Once visible satellite emerges in suspect we see a large sloppy center.
 
Shaggy said:
It really looks like garbage. Main showers are way removed from the center. Once visible satellite emerges in suspect we see a large sloppy center.
Click to expand...
I do think there will be a time as it approaches the coast that it may try to lose the asymmetric look and start to get more consolidated convection near the center. Thankfully it'll likely be out of time by that point to really go to town
 
SD said:
I do think there will be a time as it approaches the coast that it may try to lose the asymmetric look and start to get more consolidated convection near the center. Thankfully it'll likely be out of time by that point to really go to town
Click to expand...

Yeah certainly possible. Had it avoided the Yucatan this would have been much stronger and probably a hurricane at landfall.
 
I agree this would probably get more attention if it were income to NC or SC right now. Stormcast forums, which caters to Gulf Coast residents, is popping right now. I'm basically hovering between both sites.

On another note, Cristobal is slightly stronger this morning. The pressure's down to 992 mb and the winds are up to 50 mph.
 
Will Rossman said:
I agree this would probably get more attention if it were income to NC or SC right now. Stormcast forums, which caters to Gulf Coast residents, is popping right now. I'm basically hovering between both sites.

On another note, Cristobal is slightly stronger this morning. The pressure's down to 992 mb and the winds are up to 50 mph.
Click to expand...
Wow!! Models have it getting its act together closer towards the gulf coast. Maybe it will before than
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah certainly possible. Had it avoided the Yucatan this would have been much stronger and probably a hurricane at landfall.
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I think it has a shot at cane status before landfall. The evolution today and tonight should be interesting to watch as it may lose some of that big band off to its NE and attempts to fire convection more around the center.

This could be one of those that ends up looking better for a period after landfall. Euro keeps it either side of 990 through the rest of its life span
 
SD said:
I think it has a shot at cane status before landfall. The evolution today and tonight should be interesting to watch as it may lose some of that big band off to its NE and attempts to fire convection more around the center.

This could be one of those that ends up looking better for a period after landfall. Euro keeps it either side of 990 through the rest of its life span
Click to expand...

Yeah the center looks a little better to me if not can get some storms firing around that it can get it together pretty quick i think.

Wonder how much if at all that dry western side will kill the storms from wrapping the center though.
 
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