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Tropical Tropical Storm Cristobal

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021500
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

...SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

...LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING CONTINUES OVER
PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 92.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three
was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 92.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). The
depression is forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward
this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern Bay of
Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the
southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is likely to become a tropical storm today.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce total
rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz,
and Campeche. The depression is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other
Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10
to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along
the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of
these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend,
and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all
of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Click to expand...
 
114640.png


3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf
of Mexico by this weekend. However, it is too soon to specify the
location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf
Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this
system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place as we begin the season.
 
WTNT63 KNHC 021619 TCUAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042014 1115 AM CDT Jun 02 2020 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Three has strengthened into Tropical Storm Cristobal. The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 1115 AM AST...1615 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 92.7W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
000
WTNT33 KNHC 021749 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020

Corrected header to reflect Tropical Storm

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 92.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next within 24 to 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 92.8 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). The storm is
forecast to move slowly southwestward or southward through tonight,
and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal is
forecast to be near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche
tonight through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO
header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over
parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche. The
depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other Mexican states,
Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches,
with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific
coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific
locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm
total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these
areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Click to expand...
 
Euro shows it making landfall as a category 1 hurricane in Louisiana
ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png
.
 
Honestly I might sound crazy here but I would think this would be a stronger storm given the nice broad anticyclone at 200mb to fan out the outflow and ventilate the storm, especially on its N/NE side, and there’s not much shear to get in the way of it,?combine that with AN SSTs, that’s a pretty good environment when it comes to the wind fields, with this look I’d think a 960-970mb storm isn’t out of the realm of possibilities 90CBAAE8-754D-4FA9-BC27-030485DCC597.png45C0ED42-3430-47AD-8163-4956E096054E.png6CF1ECA0-5166-4517-986A-B1B0E70FF72E.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Honestly I might sound crazy here but I would think this would be a stronger storm given the nice broad anticyclone at 200mb to fan out the outflow and ventilate the storm, especially on its N/NE side, and there’s not much shear to get in the way of it,?combine that with AN SSTs, that’s a pretty good environment when it comes to the wind fields, with this look I’d think a 960-970mb storm isn’t out of the realm of possibilities View attachment 42466View attachment 42467View attachment 42468
Click to expand...

Wouldn’t surprise me. Storms love to pop in this area before epically collapsing.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Honestly I might sound crazy here but I would think this would be a stronger storm given the nice broad anticyclone at 200mb to fan out the outflow and ventilate the storm, especially on its N/NE side, and there’s not much shear to get in the way of it,?combine that with AN SSTs, that’s a pretty good environment when it comes to the wind fields, with this look I’d think a 960-970mb storm isn’t out of the realm of possibilities View attachment 42466View attachment 42467View attachment 42468
Click to expand...
I can certainly think of several possible ways this one craps the bed, inner core structure (large/broad or initial weaker system favors slower intensification and/or a weaker storm), dry air and shear from the upper trough to its W-NW, excess low-level stretching deformation disturbs a relatively weak cyclone and in the right circumstances could induce dissipation, an entirely new storm to form or very little if any intensification. Certainly a favorable environment but I’m pretty skeptical of the strong solutions until I see how much land interaction it has with Mexico. My personal hunch is we see more than forecast and this struggles
 
Here's an interesting take from a pro met elsewhere about the Gulf SSTs being kept down 2-3 degrees due to more than the normal amount of river flow into the Gulf as I never would have thought it could have that much influence:

"Sea Surface temperatures over the forecast track are marginal, averaging about 80.6F. Shear is favorable. I have to think the heavy rain we have seen the past few months over the Midwest and southern Plains is keeping this from being a hurricane, possible strong hurricane. Lots of river water flowing into the northern Gulf keeping the temperatures just above 80 degrees. If we were in a drought I would believe the Gulf temps could be 2 or 3 degrees warmer. Just a thought."
 
Pretty quiet in here. I guess there's not much to talk about until the next batch of models start coming in later this evening.
 
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