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Tropical Tropical Storm Cristobal

Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory 6:

...CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT INCHES TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...

LOCATION: 19.1°N 92.3°W
PRESENT MOVEMENT: S at 1 mph
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 mb (-1)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 mph (+5)


NHC Track/Intensity Forecast:
1CD1A875-EDA0-4267-AE8B-08776CCA7C9E.png

12H: 60 MPH
24H: 40 MPH (Inland)
36H: 35 MPH (Inland)
48H: 35 MPH (Inland)
60H: 40 MPH (Over Water)
72H: 45 MPH (Over Water)
96H: 60 MPH (Over Water)
120H: 65 MPH (Over Water)
 
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory 6A:

...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE IT CREEPS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...

LOCATION: 19.0°N 92.1°W
PRESENT MOVEMENT: SE at 2 mph
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 mb (-2)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 mph (+10)
 
My point forecast from NWS now showing Sunday night forecast of wind gusts up to 65 mph. Of course, it's still far our, so things can still change (and will), but it makes this all a little more real to me.
 
000
WTNT33 KNHC 031454
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

...CRISTOBAL MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 92.0W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM W OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning west of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal
was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 92.0 West.
Cristobal is moving toward the south-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h),
and a turn toward the east is expected later today. A turn toward
the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday.
On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of
eastern Mexico through Thursday. The center is forecast to move
back over the Gulf of Mexico by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Cristobal
will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday evening. Some
re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Friday night:

Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco,
and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25
inches.

Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches.

Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm
total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.

Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg


000
WTNT43 KNHC 031455
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
imagery from the Sabancuy radar in Mexico indicate that the center
of Cristobal made landfall in the state of Campeche just to the
west of Ciudad del Carmen around 1330 UTC. Data from the aircraft
and earlier surface reports indicate that the landfall intensity
was about 50 kt. Now that the center of circulation has moved
inland, a gradual weakening trend should commence. However, the
large circulation will take some time to spin down. It is
anticipated that Cristobal will weaken to a depression by tomorrow
evening. Later in the forecast period, the system is expected to
emerge into the Gulf of Mexico so some re-strengthening is
predicted. However, the global models show increased southwesterly
shear influencing the cyclone over the northern Gulf of Mexico and
this should limit intensification. The official intensity forecast
is similar to the latest LGEM and HCCA guidance. However, there is
significant uncertainty as to how strong a cyclone we will be
dealing with near the northern Gulf coast this weekend.

The storm has been moving slowly south-southeastward, or 150/3 kt.
Over the next couple of days, Cristobal should move slowly in a
cyclonic loop while embedded within a broader gyre over Central
America and eastern Mexico. Then, the cyclone should turn
northward into a weakness in the mid-level flow over the Gulf of
Mexico, and approach the northern Gulf coast within 4 days. The
official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model
consensus, TVCA.


Key Messages:

1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of
Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week.
The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern
Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending
along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador.
This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm
conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through
Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco,
and northern Chiapas states.

3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central
and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of
storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the
weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the
Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact
location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these
areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have
their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 18.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1200Z 18.1N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0000Z 18.9N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1200Z 20.0N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 06/0000Z 21.5N 90.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 06/1200Z 23.5N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1200Z 31.0N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 
Does anyone have any guesses on how this May impact the southeast?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Could be a wet and windy late weekend for me down in south Louisiana. I know most on here are from the GA, AL, FL, and Carolina Southeast on this board, but for all here who will in some way be impacted as well, stay safe.
 
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