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Tropical Tropical Storm Cristobal

I can't remember, do TS that drop to depressions lose their name?
Also, hoping this one somehow just dissipates, though I know that is unlikely. I'm supposed to be in Gulf Shores this weekend.
No they don't. Even if it drops to dissipated and the core survives and re-strengthens it'll keep the name.
 
I can't remember, do TS that drop to depressions lose their name?
Also, hoping this one somehow just dissipates, though I know that is unlikely. I'm supposed to be in Gulf Shores this weekend.
As long as they still keep their circulation intact, they keep their name. Plenty of storms in the Atlantic Basin over the years have torn themselves down to a depression in the Caribbean, only to emerge on the other side to either the Gulf or the Atlantic and roar back to life, keeping the same name.
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 91.0W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
Probably going to be a messy 48 hours as convection forms in different areas and we start getting competing mesolows within the larger circulation. Likely scenario is we see deep convection form over the yucatan and adjacent waters as divergence really increases in this area. This will help pull the system back over water and relocate the center. As it lifts northward it'll probably still be lopsided and the incoming trough that is tugging it north will probably help keep it that way. By late in the weekend though it starts losing its connection to the trough and pull and may slow down south of La as a ridge builds in to its north. If that happens and we start to get more of a slow west track it may have some time to strengthen before its directed back north on the back of the ridge.
 
If you loop some of the CAMs and 12K nam (I know they aren't tropical models, only using as an example) you can see how the isobar field is often peanut shaped or oblong between areas of convection. If we see these bursts of convection first that means the storm isn't healthy, second it will likely keep overall intensity down, third it could quickly and easily change the end track. Deeper convection northeast with the LLC chasing the convection would mean a quicker arrival in the US.
 
Interestingly, the NWS point forecast has been easing off of my highest predicted winds. Yesterday they had predicted gusts up to around 60 mph. Now they're saying gusts up to 45 Sunday night when conditions are at the worst. Not that I'm complaining. It just means I need to prepare for a bunch of rain vs limbs falling down.
 
Forecast is slowly shifting east over past 12 hours. It can keep going as for as I'm concerned.

View attachment 42525
Noooo, I need it into Texas. Well now that I think about it, there is likely to be more rain off to the east of the storm after it passes, rather than directly behind it, so maybe this could work out for me.
Of course, tings may still change after it gets back over the water and redevelops.
 
Actually it's shifted west again for this evening's track. Now it' supposed to go up through western LA and up through the middle of AR.

Throughout the day models have been fixing the center further east. The vorticity maps are illustrating a more eastward progression with the maximum vorticities the higher up you go. It's also stretching the vorticities N over the Yucatan. Also, some posters on Wunderground are posting lower pressures of 1001 and 1002 near the SE Yucatan, as well as Belize. I put stock in the models on the overall synoptic setup that moves the storm N or NNW while in the Gulf, but I think a more eastward solution near AL, MI or far western FL Panhandle are definitely in play at this point.

It's a significant difference for South Florida. We are soaked. The lake outside my home came up a foot last week. An 8-16" rainfall might bring this water up to my door.


 
Throughout the day models have been fixing the center further east. The vorticity maps are illustrating a more eastward progression with the maximum vorticities the higher up you go. It's also stretching the vorticities N over the Yucatan. Also, some posters on Wunderground are posting lower pressures of 1001 and 1002 near the SE Yucatan, as well as Belize. I put stock in the models on the overall synoptic setup that moves the storm N or NNW while in the Gulf, but I think a more eastward solution near AL, MI or far western FL Panhandle are definitely in play at this point.


From the discussion from this evening, it appears the NHC forecaster is giving some weight to the Euro's more westward solution. But I do know that the convection seems to be heaviest on the eastern side so far. If that trend continues, no reason it won't while it is still disorganized, it's certainly very possible this storm gets pulled more toward MS/AL instead. Good points you've brought up.
 
From the discussion from this evening, it appears the NHC forecaster is giving some weight to the Euro's more westward solution. But I do know that the convection seems to be heaviest on the eastern side so far. If that trend continues, no reason it won't while it is still disorganized, it's certainly very possible this storm gets pulled more toward MS/AL instead. Good points you've brought up.

Thanks. I don't have a great understanding of meteorology, but 20 hurricane seasons have demonstrated to me that an incorrect COC fix of a broad, undefined COC can have enormous variabilities downstream, especially in relation to weak synoptic features or model depicting over-aggressive development. I've seen systems weaker than modeled shift a couple thousand of miles in the Atlantic when there's weak/moderate influences by synoptic setups (e.g. missing the trough cause the storm is too far south). Then the younger weather enthusiasts insist that all or most of the models suck. I use to be one of those twerps in my early teens, and I'd ghost when an actual meteorologist would set me straight.

As I continue watching the satellite images, I see the area of convection continuing to walk east, but also notice the the trough pivoting the axis of convection from SE to NW. A eastern LA or MI track is definitely favored, but something is definitely getting kicked east near the Caribbean Sea. With all the stretching, the possibility of a piece of energy being left behind is possible, and some of the models are hinting at that.
 
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast from Indian Pass to Arepika, Florida, and from Grand Isle,
Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast from Intracoastal City Louisiana to the
Alabama/Florida border, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake
Maurepas.
 
The latest GFS has it making landfall as a strong tropical storm on the southeastern Louisiana coast.
 
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