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Tropical Tropical Storm Cristobal

2 PM update:
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
100 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 89.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF MERIDA MEXICO
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Herrero
to Rio Lagartos.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Arepika Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Tropical storm conditions in the watch area in Mexico could occur
through this afternoon.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
5 PM update:
788
WTNT33 KNHC 052049
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 89.7W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for areas outside the
Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the mouth of
the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi, including Lake
Borgne.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana to the
Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended west of Grand Isle to east
of Morgan City Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Arepika Florida
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi
River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
Also recon has found 50 kt SFMR winds so far.

They haven't descended yet, so I wouldn't trust SFMR readings. But I wouldn't be surprised if there's some stronger winds in those storms NE of the center.
 
541
WTNT33 KNHC 060236
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020
1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND CRISTOBAL A LITTLE
STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 90.1W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
Yeah weaksauce. Don’t worry we will have PLENTY to talk about this season. It’s 2020 after all.


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It really looks like garbage. Main showers are way removed from the center. Once visible satellite emerges in suspect we see a large sloppy center.
 
It really looks like garbage. Main showers are way removed from the center. Once visible satellite emerges in suspect we see a large sloppy center.
I do think there will be a time as it approaches the coast that it may try to lose the asymmetric look and start to get more consolidated convection near the center. Thankfully it'll likely be out of time by that point to really go to town
 
I do think there will be a time as it approaches the coast that it may try to lose the asymmetric look and start to get more consolidated convection near the center. Thankfully it'll likely be out of time by that point to really go to town

Yeah certainly possible. Had it avoided the Yucatan this would have been much stronger and probably a hurricane at landfall.
 
I agree this would probably get more attention if it were income to NC or SC right now. Stormcast forums, which caters to Gulf Coast residents, is popping right now. I'm basically hovering between both sites.

On another note, Cristobal is slightly stronger this morning. The pressure's down to 992 mb and the winds are up to 50 mph.
 
I agree this would probably get more attention if it were income to NC or SC right now. Stormcast forums, which caters to Gulf Coast residents, is popping right now. I'm basically hovering between both sites.

On another note, Cristobal is slightly stronger this morning. The pressure's down to 992 mb and the winds are up to 50 mph.
Wow!! Models have it getting its act together closer towards the gulf coast. Maybe it will before than
 
Yeah certainly possible. Had it avoided the Yucatan this would have been much stronger and probably a hurricane at landfall.
I think it has a shot at cane status before landfall. The evolution today and tonight should be interesting to watch as it may lose some of that big band off to its NE and attempts to fire convection more around the center.

This could be one of those that ends up looking better for a period after landfall. Euro keeps it either side of 990 through the rest of its life span
 
I think it has a shot at cane status before landfall. The evolution today and tonight should be interesting to watch as it may lose some of that big band off to its NE and attempts to fire convection more around the center.

This could be one of those that ends up looking better for a period after landfall. Euro keeps it either side of 990 through the rest of its life span

Yeah the center looks a little better to me if not can get some storms firing around that it can get it together pretty quick i think.

Wonder how much if at all that dry western side will kill the storms from wrapping the center though.
 
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