accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,660
- Reaction score
- 10,817
Is it good on its track?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Tropical Storm Barry
- Thread starter accu35
- Start date
Fountainguy97
Member
I’d trust it’s track more than it’s intensity. But still it’s a short range model. And intensity can impact track lol.
I usually look at it inside 12 hrs. Outside that it gets iffy in most circumstances. And out to 36 hrs is very sketchy. I’ve seen it do very well out to 36 hrs but also completely bust as well.
No model will ever be THE model to use. That’s why we use the blends and cone of uncertainty!
Brent
Member
Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85
km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or
early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast.
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85
km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or
early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast.
BufordWX
Member
Tropical storm Barry 11 PM EDT NHC update:
Current conditions:
Location: 27.9°N 89.4°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Future forecast:
INIT: 50 MPH
12H: 60 MPH
24H: 65 MPH
36H: 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H: 50 MPH...INLAND
72H: 35 MPH...INLAND
96H: 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H: 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Current conditions:
Location: 27.9°N 89.4°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Future forecast:
INIT: 50 MPH
12H: 60 MPH
24H: 65 MPH
36H: 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H: 50 MPH...INLAND
72H: 35 MPH...INLAND
96H: 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H: 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
The things this storm could do if sheer lessens. The door is slowly closing but still time for major surprises.
Brent
Member
its tomorrow or never, honestly I think tomorrow is when the models had it taking off anyway(and also had it going to Texas to give it more time), the Louisiana option was always gonna be weaker I feel just because of less time
speaking of Texas, the UKMET finally went to Louisiana this run after many runs going towards SE TX
TROPICAL STORM BARRY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 88.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2019 0 27.9N 88.9W 1002 35
1200UTC 12.07.2019 12 27.8N 90.5W 999 41
0000UTC 13.07.2019 24 28.6N 91.4W 994 42
1200UTC 13.07.2019 36 29.1N 92.5W 987 67
0000UTC 14.07.2019 48 30.1N 93.7W 987 52
1200UTC 14.07.2019 60 31.4N 94.5W 994 40
0000UTC 15.07.2019 72 33.0N 95.2W 993 27
1200UTC 15.07.2019 84 33.9N 96.0W 1000 24
0000UTC 16.07.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING
The UKMET had been doing a Jose to Houston thanks to left bias. In 2017, the UKMET was all alone in going at FL with Jose 5 times in a row and all at cat 4-5 to boot before then suddenly shifting way east.
Last edited:
Brent
Member
I know people have been saying its a great model but its had some high profile busts always to the left
I believe it took Florence to Florida too a few times
It was the best and absolutely fantastic with Irma. But then it busted hard with the very next storm, Jose. That's why the westerly tracks into FL were taken so seriously here and elsewhere.
I didn't remember that it did similar for Florence. So, there's still another one.
In other model news, the GEFS mean continues to be ~100 miles W of the GFS in W LA.
Last edited:
Also looks slower and a tad stronger
Euro tracks from Kentucky to central Virginia. About to get more humid and tropical in the Carolinas. Then redevelops off the coast.
wannabwm
Member
Will check out http://stormcastforums.com
Very good forum based in South LA
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NCSNOW
Member
pcbjr
Member
Surface winds vs. satellite ... a study in contrasts ...
First couple of vis satellite images show it's trying to get it's act together but obviously running out of time.
pcbjr
Member
It has a small window of opportunity ...
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=11&length=12
Fountainguy97
Member
Barry is a modest TS now
Last edited:
Going to make a run at hurricane strength. Always heard a strengthening storm is completely different than a decaying storm when hitting land.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
It looks horrid this morning! Not going to make it to Hurricane, IMO. But results/ flooding, will be the same!
Yep, looks like your standard "if that makes hurricane it will be the ugliest hurricane ever" early season gulf storm.
Barry is still very poorly organized while still sucking up the dry mainland air. Its also is still dealing with small low level centers rotating around the main one.
Barry is still very poorly organized while still sucking up the dry mainland air. Its also is still dealing with small low level centers rotating around the main one.
Fountainguy97
Member
They did find 62knt flight lvl and 54knt surface winds. that's 71mph and 62 mph.
Not terribly far away from hurricane status even with all its ruggedness.
It's always amazing to see the different tropical systems. Some systems look like this and barely have TS winds. Barry is pretty resilient given what its survived and strengthened through. Its not everyday you see a completely exposed center and still strengthening
Not terribly far away from hurricane status even with all its ruggedness.
It's always amazing to see the different tropical systems. Some systems look like this and barely have TS winds. Barry is pretty resilient given what its survived and strengthened through. Its not everyday you see a completely exposed center and still strengthening
My concern is that this thing tries to pull a Harvey as it makes landfall. By that I'm referring mostly to Harvey's intensification right up to landfall. If Barry gathers all that strength to that point, it may release the energy more potently in the form of winds and rain along the path than it would otherwise.
With the blowup of convection to the south of the center I wouldn't be surprised if it gets pulled southward or reforms under that convection. If so it will likely make hurricane strength.
Fountainguy97
Member
Well we will not see any rapid intensification at landfall with Barry. Most likely we will have a slowly strengthening high end TS or low end cat 1. Strengthening storms are always worse than a weakening system.
Basically a strengthening low end cat 1 can be as bad as a weakening mid/high end cat 1. But this is all highly variable.
Barry will at MAX be a low end cat one. It would be extremely shocking to see it wrap up and bomb out in the little time it has left
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah models (hrrr is what ive watched a lot) try to wrap those convective bursts around the core. Almost like a spin top. That burst winds the core up then it relaxes then another burst winds it up further. The end result is a slowly strengthening storm. IF you have the center get under convection then that changes the game.
IMO low end cat one is easily achievable.
Yeah, sorry, I just meant the idea of it strengthening despite land nearby. I'd be shocked if Barry pushed much past 80 mph at this point. Up to now the storm basically looks impressive on satellite, with the exception of the northern half of it missing deep convection.
Fountainguy97
Member
Yeah that recent burst is very cold. We should see Barry make low end cane status if that keeps up
Looks like Barry has a healthy burst of convection ongoing just south of the center. Maybe going for ramp up at last?
Fountainguy97
Member
With the shear relaxing the Gulf bath water is really helping out.
Very nice burst very close to the center. Interesting next few hours!
Very nice burst very close to the center. Interesting next few hours!
Last edited:
Well Barry it’s either now or never. Lol
For those folks in the direct path, hopefully it stays ugly and is never.
Brent
Member
Looks better than last night
Brent
Member
Wow 65 mph
Hurricane just got more likely
Hurricane just got more likely
NHC disco now calling for Barry to make a run at Hurricane strength just before landfall:
Barry has been strengthening despite an asymmetric convective
structure, ongoing northerly shear, and the presence of mid- to
upper-level dry air over the northern semicircle. The intensity
guidance suggests that, while the environment will be at best
marginally favorable, the cyclone will continue to intensify until
landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Barry
to become a hurricane in 24 h, just before landfall, with this
forecast being slightly above the guidance. After landfall, the
cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low
forecast to occur in about 72 h.
Barry has been strengthening despite an asymmetric convective
structure, ongoing northerly shear, and the presence of mid- to
upper-level dry air over the northern semicircle. The intensity
guidance suggests that, while the environment will be at best
marginally favorable, the cyclone will continue to intensify until
landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Barry
to become a hurricane in 24 h, just before landfall, with this
forecast being slightly above the guidance. After landfall, the
cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low
forecast to occur in about 72 h.
Barry and lee are sorta similar
Brent
Member
Still lopsided but looks way more tropical here last night it looked more extratropical lol
Pressure is down to 994.1 mb per recon.