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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

Brick Tamland said:
Well, we have seen tropical systems blow up very quickly the last couple of years. And our weather just keeps getting more extreme as the years go by. I would not be shocked at all to see this blow up like the HWRF shows. I believe the UK was showing something similar.
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I guess you forget the past hurricane seasons and model reputation. The HWRF has a tenancy to do this and be wrong. If it and the HMON agree then you have a better chance at seeing what they both show.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I guess you forget the past hurricane seasons and model reputation. The HWRF has a tenancy to do this and be wrong. If it and the HMON agree then you have a better chance at seeing what they both show.
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Yet, we have seen this happen the past few years, and the UK was showing a strong cane earlier. So, like I said, I would not be shocked.
 
aal92_2019071000_track_early.png
what a bend east
 
The HWRF is not very reliable for undeveloped systems. However, it is quite accurate for developed systems. It's worth paying a lot more attention to once a well defined circulation develops.
 
If projected landfall is saturday or so that gives this system a good bit of time or organize itself.
 
If this storm only gets partially organized before it makes landfall, most of the convection would be on its eastern side. This could mean all the difference in who gets what impacts. And of course we'll have watch for severe weather as well.
 
If you want a more NE track looking at the Euro, it has to get its act together quickly and need that trough over the NE to be stronger in the 60-78hr range. After that little bit of time the door slams shut and it will go west into Texas or western LA without a doubt.
 
There are no absolutes and forecasting strength and landfall of a location for a undeveloped storm carries little weight currently. More will be revealed soon tho.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png

GFS has it making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in the Louisiana Coast.
 
Sounds like the UKMET is into Texas

Flip flop

951 mb here just before landfallScreenshot_2019-07-09-23-09-45.png
 
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GFS legacy has a Mississippi landfall so fairly far east from previous run
 
The new GFS although looked to be going west took a sharp turn north and had a landfall in the same location as the previous run but a tad stronger due to it being over ocean longer
 
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