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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

ForsythSnow said:
Pop up cat 5s? I've seen no such thing. There's a thing called time and a lot of energy they need to become a cat 5. I think this will be no more than a cat 3 if it can even get there. Likely going for a weak cat 2 IMO.
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Harvey cat 1 to 4 and Micheal cat 2 to 5 both in 24 hrs and in back to back seasons. Not much time there.


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000
NOUS42 KNHC 091625
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1230 PM EDT TUE 09 JULY 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z JULY 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-042

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 42
A. 10/1800Z A. 11/0000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 02BBA AL92
C. 10/1700Z C. 10/2000Z
D. 28.3N 86.2W D. NA
E. 10/1730Z TO 10/2300Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 15,000 TO 25,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 75 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 42
A. 11/0530Z A. 11/1000Z
B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
C. 11/0415Z C. 11/0800Z
D. 27.9N 87.8W D. 27.8N 88.3W
E. 11/0500Z TO 11/0830Z E. 11/1030Z TO 11/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE - TEAL 76
A. 11/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0502A CYCLONE
C. 11/1000Z
D. 27.7N 88.5W
E. 11/1100Z TO 11/1730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
A THREAT.
B. NOAA 42 P-3 TDR MISSIONS DEPARTING KLAL AT 11/2000Z AND
12/0800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN
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BHS1975 said:
Harvey cat 1 to 4 and Micheal cat 2 to 5 both in 24 hrs and in back to back seasons. Not much time there.


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I don't know if this one will explode like that, but we have seen it happen very quickly the last two years like you pointed out.
 
BHS1975 said:
Harvey cat 1 to 4 and Micheal cat 2 to 5 both in 24 hrs and in back to back seasons. Not much time there.


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Click to expand...
Harvey wasn't a 5, but I see what you mean somewhat. I doubt that we will see a cat 5 or 4 from this. Harvey and Michael had special reasons for becoming a major hurricane, mainly being the lack of ERCs in development. Only way is could do that is if it's slow and stays small and RIs to a 4 before ERCs occur.
 
small mid level circulation evident now due south of Panama City, FL. Probably one of many circulations hidden around the area
 
Last edited:
70/80 and very bullish wording, like for a stronger storm

A broad low pressure area has emerged over Apalachee Bay in the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for tropical cyclone formation and development
over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late Wednesday or Thursday while the system moves westward
across the northern Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Unit
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low on
Wednesday, if necessary. This disturbance has the potential to
produce heavy rainfall from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle during the next several days. In addition, this system
could produce wind and storm surge impacts later this week or this
weekend from Louisiana to the Upper Texas coast, and interests along
the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor its progress. For more
information, please see products issued by your local weather
forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Harvey wasn't a 5, but I see what you mean somewhat. I doubt that we will see a cat 5 or 4 from this. Harvey and Michael had special reasons for becoming a major hurricane, mainly being the lack of ERCs in development. Only way is could do that is if it's slow and stays small and RIs to a 4 before ERCs occur.
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Yep has to stay small. The first ERC this close to the mainland and dry air will likely make this another rapidly weakening gulf landfall.
 
Thru 48 hours on the ECMWF, the vort max is stronger but a tad further north if anything.

A deeper tropical cyclone however in the long-run will be steered more significantly by the upper level northerly flow impinging on upon it
ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_fh48_trend (3).gif
 
Hour 72 12Z Euro same location and a bit stronger and larger vs 0Z run's 84.

Edit: Liable to go east of 0Z run.
 
hY95BRC.png
 
I'm beginning to feel a landfall between Grand Isle (south of New Orleans) and Biloxi is the most likely. The upper level steering patterns are pretty well established by the models. And the changes in track are getting smaller. At this point the main variables would be a rapid development and intensification (not unlikely, given SSTs and UL winds) leading to a more eastward path, and the other unknown is where the low circulation forms.

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Something else to consider, the Euro seems to deepen this a bit quicker than the 12z run from yesterday. This may allow the system to climb north a little quicker and hit land sooner which would mean less time over water. It's going to be a very delicate balance with how quickly this organizes, if it runs into any shear (sometimes not well modeled), how much separation it gets from land, etc. Right now I would go with a middle of the road approach with a hit on central LA as a sheared TS, probably 45-55mph winds and a pressure of 995mb or so.

IF this gains more separation to the south and spends more time over water like the UK and some Euro/ICON runs have shown it would likely become a hurricane with sub 985mb pressures.
 
Not saying it's real, but Ukmet and NAM performed really well with Michael....although everyone blew it off until it was 8 hours in.
 
snowlover91 said:
Something else to consider, the Euro seems to deepen this a bit quicker than the 12z run from yesterday. This may allow the system to climb north a little quicker and hit land sooner which would mean less time over water. It's going to be a very delicate balance with how quickly this organizes, if it runs into any shear (sometimes not well modeled), how much separation it gets from land, etc. Right now I would go with a middle of the road approach with a hit on central LA as a sheared TS, probably 45-55mph winds and a pressure of 995mb or so.

IF this gains more separation to the south and spends more time over water like the UK and some Euro/ICON runs have shown it would likely become a hurricane with sub 985mb pressures.
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I can deal with that kind of storm, as long as it doesn't stall out and flood everything. At least we've had a dry spell for the last couple weeks. I expect that there would be enhanced coverage and intensity for rainfall for days after landfall as well.

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snowlover91 said:
Something else to consider, the Euro seems to deepen this a bit quicker than the 12z run from yesterday. This may allow the system to climb north a little quicker and hit land sooner which would mean less time over water. It's going to be a very delicate balance with how quickly this organizes, if it runs into any shear (sometimes not well modeled), how much separation it gets from land, etc. Right now I would go with a middle of the road approach with a hit on central LA as a sheared TS, probably 45-55mph winds and a pressure of 995mb or so.

IF this gains more separation to the south and spends more time over water like the UK and some Euro/ICON runs have shown it would likely become a hurricane with sub 985mb pressures.
Click to expand...

" the Euro seems to deepen this a bit quicker...This may allow the system to climb north a little quicker and hit land sooner which would mean less time over water"

No, if you actually looked at the deep-layer steering flow, the winds are out of the north in the upper levels.

download (6).png

A deeper, more extensive warm core from a stronger TC will actually travel further south, not north, as Dr. Pappin also showed yesterday in his analysis of the large-scale steering flow using potential vorticity inversion.

 
Webberweather53 said:
" the Euro seems to deepen this a bit quicker...This may allow the system to climb north a little quicker and hit land sooner which would mean less time over water"

No, if you actually looked at the deep-layer steering flow, the winds are out of the north in the upper levels.

View attachment 20945

A deeper, more extensive warm core from a stronger TC will actually travel further south, not north, as Dr. Pappin also showed yesterday in his analysis of the large-scale steering flow using potential vorticity inversion.

Click to expand...


Levi's recent tweet reinforces this point, a deeper TC influenced more by the upper-level flow will travel further south, whereas a weaker storm embedded more within the southerly flow will move north faster into land.

 
ForsythSnow said:
I've never heard of that model before. Any idea if it's the first year or not? If not, how'd it do if you know. Also what's the winds and pressure show per that? Looks like a well organized hurricane.
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It's a proprietary model run by Dr Ventrice so I'd have to ask what the specifics are regarding its input, parameterizations, parent model, resolution, performance, etc. I don't consider it to be terribly unrealistic in the grand scheme of things atm given that its far from the only model showing a solution like this and is within the range of variability of the latest & recent ensemble suites.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's a proprietary model run by Dr Ventrice so I'd have to ask what the specifics are regarding its input, parameterizations, parent model, resolution, performance, etc. I don't consider it to be terribly unrealistic in the grand scheme of things atm given that its far from the only model showing a solution like this and is within the range of variability of the latest & recent ensemble suites.
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I think it was used last winter also! It’s the equivalent to JBs pioneer model, so what could go wrong!? I’m going with a LA landfall, 80mph Hurricane, then missing Wilkesboro completely
 
Tarheel1 said:
I think it was used last winter also! It’s the equivalent to JBs pioneer model, so what could go wrong!? I’m going with a LA landfall, 80mph Hurricane, then missing Wilkesboro completely
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A strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane is entirely reasonable so long as the low & mid-level centers become vertically stacked earlier on in 92L's lifetime

"then missing Wilkesboro completely"
Our resident dodo bird will be very upset.
 
Webberweather53 said:
" the Euro seems to deepen this a bit quicker...This may allow the system to climb north a little quicker and hit land sooner which would mean less time over water"

No, if you actually looked at the deep-layer steering flow, the winds are out of the north in the upper levels.

View attachment 20945

A deeper, more extensive warm core from a stronger TC will actually travel further south, not north, as Dr. Pappin also showed yesterday in his analysis of the large-scale steering flow using potential vorticity inversion.

Click to expand...


I don't have paid Euro maps so all I can go off of with the Euro is it's track compared with previous runs which is why I said it "may" allow it to climb north quicker. I wasn't sure and going only off the previous 24 hour panels in contrast with today's run. Oftentimes a stronger system will be more inclined to climb poleward (but not always) or feel a weakness vs a weaker one, and based off the rough Tidbits maps, that seemed to be the case. I also don't do Twitter so only see what's posted on forums and had not seen anything about the upper level synoptics yet.
 
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