packfan98
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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
pcbjr
Member
Done
Yes, there will be colder air to tap in from the northeast, because there is snow pack in southeastern Canada.
Jessy89
Member
For now it looks like a winter mix to rain scenario in upstate sc and north east Georgia. There will be other trends and looks every run
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The earlier run of the FV3 was better, though. Probably going to be some back and forth with things until we get inside 72 hours. Good thing is there is a storm signal and we have potential.
Someone posted this map earlier today but we'd like to see that snow cover much further south to really help out with any CAD....
At this point I don’t believe we’ll see drastic changes with our southern wave. The northern piece still has plenty of wiggle room
I don't disagree, seen the northern stream save us or screw us more than a few times and always seems to be the last thing to nail down....
That didn't seem to be a problem last month at least for NC. Southeastern Canada and NY is much colder this time around as well.Someone posted this map earlier today but we'd like to see that snow cover much further south to really help out with any CAD....
I believe the high was in a little better location but I am may be wrong, certainly it can work without the snow cover and current weather don't care about climo I know..... but just generally speaking a nice snowpack further south than what that map shows is more ideal, more of an added insurance policy lol
Plus remember that rn/sn line didn't make much southward progress with the Dec storm either
Oh I don't doubt it helps quite a bit. By the end of the month it will definitely be better for tapping the cold with less modification.
Jon
Member
12z EPS has the low much further south and east. You can see the weak anomaly down off of the eastern coast of FL.
snowlover91
Member
At this point I wouldn’t take any run with a grain of salt until we are in the 96-120 hour window. There is too much variability from run to run and northern stream waves are always incredibly difficult to model accurately more than 72-96 hours out. Once we are inside the 120 hour window I would look at the Euro and FV3 blend as they did quite well with the early December system.
Even the 18z GEFS has the low further south and east.
NWMSGuy
Member
From Firsthand Weather:
Jessy89
Member
Even the 18z GEFS has the low further south and east.
So why was gefs a step back?
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Storm5
Member
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Well, if it's cold enough, that track of low would bring mostly snowfall. Further north the low is, the warmer it will be.
Snownut
Member
15/22 members has snow for the upstate. I'll take that 6 days out.
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Their is a lot of difference between the models of where they place the parent high. All have a high strong enough to get it done (1040 +), but FV3 has it way up in Canada and not settled into New England prior to the low sliding in. Euro and old GFS have the high further south and more established. That and the northern stream wave as has been pointed out are 2 things to watch.
accu35
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I still think the initial onset will start off as snow pretty decent for central/MS as model has been consistent on. Plenty of time for this to change. Thing I like is the gefs has the low further south, probably reason for some members to have snow further south.
Kylo
Member
18z EPS vs GEFS
Blend these and we would have something good I think.
Blend these and we would have something good I think.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I knew it wouldn’t be long! 
Last 8 GEFS runs has steadily deepened low over New England. This is getting close to having big implications on the northern stream later on as it is close to phasing up on tonight's run, which could result in a longer-lasting 50/50 low and more confluence further south which should result in the surface high being further south for the period we are watching if this trend continues. Definitely something to watch.
Jessy89
Member
Would potentially result in a stronger CAD and push of dry air, but this is just one piece of the puzzle. Northern stream interaction with southern wave and strength and track of southern wave equally important.
I agree this big low should help in a few different ways.
Jessy89
Member
The icon is north and gives most people rain. Not sure the mountains would even see much from the icon.
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Jessy89
Member
This needs to be a miller A but it’s looking like it won’t be. Let’s see
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0z GFS, the northern stream is pressing down slightly further due to the trof digging deeper that is off of the coast of CA.
Coming in better this round...
Jessy89
Member
Actually it’s looking good so far it looks colder
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Some good initial snow in eastern Arkansas/western Tennessee/Northern Mississippi. Think it's a hair south because confluence is a bit stronger in the NE.
