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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

We still have many model runs to go with this storm. Big or small, it's something to track and this storm could go either way.
 
Well this is a pleasant surprise. Let's see if RDU can finish the year with more snow than many Northeastern/Midwestern Cities!
 
So pretty much it’s suppressed just got to wait on NW Trend now.


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E17 for the win again there. I guess that one has the secondary energy come in before it warms up?

Also FYI: FV3 says yes again for Arkansas/Tennessee/North Carolina. It's not as great south of there.
 
It's a little hard to fathom that we could get a nice SE system at the beginning of a pattern change this time of year without those further north in the Mid-Atlantic and New England cashing in ahead of us. It seems like many times it takes a few storms to go north before a pattern becomes mature enough to give us a good track. Maybe the disruption of the PV and other factors we are seeing could contribute to this??
 
packfan98 said:
Many more of those 12z GEFS members are amped up and give much more snow to the mid-atlantic region than the 6z run. Looks less flat and suppressed to me.
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I think it's a better improvement further south
 
whatalife said:
HAHA! Lock the thread.


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No need for that. The overall mean did improve for the SE. It remains to be seen how much interaction the streams may have with potential phasing. This happened during the last storm where it was modeled to have more phasing at one point that ended up not panning out. It never turned the corner to hit those north of us. Time will tell with this one.
 
packfan98 said:
It's a little hard to fathom that we could get a nice SE system at the beginning of a pattern change this time of year without those further north in the Mid-Atlantic and New England cashing in ahead of us. It seems like many times it takes a few storms to go north before a pattern becomes mature enough to give us a good track. Maybe the disruption of the PV and other factors we are seeing could contribute to this??
Click to expand...

Southern energy comes in a great spot. The more amped ones must be phasing in energy diving over pac ridge. I say bring it on...big ole coastal. Yeah, probably not great for some of us but would like to see some big storms get going.

BB62B3FF-6C24-419C-BE99-F660E2A8B1BE.png
 
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