sref is showing a lot of sleet, bring on a sleet storm !
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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
I wouldn’t be surprised if sleet creeps in model runs even more, column temps have trended colder with a lot of models
Kylo
Member
My guess is it’s picking up sleet. Shows 850 line down I40.
And it’s the sref, it’s probably wrong.
Fountainguy97
Member
Sref is definitely not the best model haha. If 00z nam comes in like it then there is some credence but chances of the storm being that cold are slim
Kylo
Member
2m temps. I guess this is what happens if models are a 2-3F to warm
Not trying to steal your thunder Kylo, but here's a closer-up view of these maps. If you can call it that.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Yeah, the difference between 33 and 30 can make a world of difference. Going to be interesting to see if the models hold serve the next couple of days or come in colder.
Fountainguy97
Member
Not trying to steal your thunder Kylo, but here's a closer-up view of these maps. If you can call it that.
View attachment 10624
View attachment 10626
This ARW model should be completely tossed. It’s WAY to dry with DP’s. We toss
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
It was close to .60. It's been trending up with each run.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
I look to look at the SREF for trends in qpf and that's about it.
Cary_Snow95
Member
00z nam coming in 2-3 degrees colder at 42
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
NAM at 42 much colder. LP further south as well.
Fountainguy97
Member
Colder because of that snow blob it pops. Not sure if thats the only cause or if it’s actually colder
Yeah it’s only colder because of evap cooling starting earlier.
Tarheelwx
Member
Weren't more/better data supposed to be loaded into the models today? Maybe that's what's driving the change.
TW
TW
Well look at that.... little bit of snow, likely flurries or snirgaBlue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Hour 45 a meso high forms NE of DC. That’s good to see.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
The NAM is trying to get the precip started in NC Saturday afternoon. Sounding still show a distinct dry layer just above the surface though.
Cary_Snow95
Member
HmmBlue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
At hour 45, the I-40 corridor is 4-7 degrees colder at the surface than previous run.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yikes this NAM run goes all in on the ZR here with 0.5" by hour 51 and it's not over.