Oh my, that looks like the cmc, this is the onset tho so maybe latent heat release from raindrops will warm up sfc temps a bit ?
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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
Oh my, that looks like the cmc, this is the onset tho so maybe latent heat release from raindrops will warm up sfc temps a bit ?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It did considerably better last system with the cold. It was only a little colder than reality. However, it was quite close.
Jessy89
Member
I don’t know if I should laugh because I don’t believe it. Or take it seriously upstate sc oh my that’s a ice storm that John ceserish says will be mostly a cold rain. And we all know John knows weather lol
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packfan98
Moderator
That initial batch of precipitation on this run of the nam really drops the temperatures. Gets the triad into the upper 20’s and locks it in. I would imagine that it would be hard to scour that out with this setup.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
This is bad. It gets colder as the precip builds in.
Just that little bit of overrunning precip in NC was the cause of a much colder run... we know there will likely be undermodeled overrunning precip
The NAM has a full on ice storm, even CLT is in the mix, getting really worried guys
NWCummingWx
Member
I don't understand this map. Why is the upstate so much warmer than N GA and western NC? It's like a slither of freezing temps just goes right by them to the west.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Wow, after a raging ZR storm, the NAM turns the NW Piedmont back to snow by 12Z Sunday. The sounding is a good snow sounding, too.
Kylo
Member
What the heck
Getting NAM'd, just like old times.... seriously though showing the frozen precip potential area.
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The reason why it’s colder in north GA is the valleys with much lower elevation, colder air pools in easier
Snownut
Member
Getting very concerned for the upstate getting an ice storm Sat night. The NAM almost always picks up on the CAD being stronger. This is not trending good at all.
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Probably some new data got put into the models and we are seeing a jump south with the system overall in addition to a colder setup. Likely there was a decent adjustment in the key factors.
snowlover91
Member
Very clear trend at 5h.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Almost 1" qpf in the Triad on the 0Z NAM.
NAM 3km has that same band of overrunning precip that causes evaporative cooling and gets a lot of places below freezing before the main precip comes in....
Nomanslandva
Member
And the 3Km NAM is still oddly bone dry so far. WTH?
NWCummingWx
Member
Forsyth, is that a total clown map or does it have any credence to it at all? That would be lights out for all of Forsyth County I'd imagine.This is bad. It gets colder as the precip builds in.