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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

Myfrotho704_ said:
NAM 3km has that same band of overrunning precip that causes evaporative cooling and gets a lot of places below freezing before the main precip comes in....
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It also has some initial snow for the triad. I’m thinking the Canadian models are going to look ominous. I’m going to bed because I don’t want to be scared...
 
Nomanslandva said:
And the 3Km NAM is still oddly bone dry so far. WTH?
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When they upgraded it they tried to fix the bias it had to be too heavy with qpf and they fixed that but also made it prone to being a bit too dry in the extended range. The qpf bumped up some this run and will continue to as it gets more in range. Until then the 12km is better to look at imo.
 
I just find it funny National Weather Service in Gsp says models trended warmer. When in fact they done the exact opposite. I can’t wait to see what they say tomorrow if these trends continue.


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Just when I thought this storm wasn’t going to be much of a dynamic one, NAM 3km shows there will be convective showers in there due to steep lapse rates 692842BB-55F3-433F-B394-62DBB15D0450.png
 
snowlover91 said:
I think we are seeing the American models catch up to what the cmc has been showing for days now...
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Won't that be something if the CMC scored a win with this. Hard to discount the NAM with the way it did with the December storm. Have to see what the globals do now. But this does seem to be the winter of the south trend.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Won't that be something if the CMC scored a win with this. Hard to discount the NAM with the way it did with the December storm. Have to see what the globals do now. But this does seem to be the winter of the south trend.
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People give the CMC a hard time because it’s usually pretty bad and unreliable but like any tool it can be useful. Rgem is showing the overrunning precip now as well.
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And the ICON is another significant ice storm for the western Piedmont of NC. No real change there.
 
Thermals aren't below freezing in north GA on the ICON, but looking at the map and comparing, it's icy from 51-60 for a good bit of NC, and some might stay icy the whole way in the northern part of NC. That's not great.
 
metwannabe said:
Getting NAM'd, just like old times.... seriously though showing the frozen precip potential area.
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Yeah what the heck is up with this map?


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