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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th

With the way the models are going, especially the short term ones, I'm starting to think there may be a chance of icing here this time. Seems like what we were missing from December may be there this time. We have the low DPs in VA area, a decent wedge and the wind direction doesn't chance at the surface while the precip is around, and the temps are dropping as the precip rolls in at the evening time and goes into the night.
 
Must be worse over by you, this would be bad.
I'm sure it is. With storms like this, we can sometimes get a little colder air aloft to get enough sleet to mitigate the freezing rain. I NEVER want an ice storm. I can't figure out if I want it to be warmer and rain, or colder and get a dusting of snow and a ton of sleet. We've already missed 10 days of school this year. 5 for the two hurricanes, and 5 for the snow storm. I have a suspicion we will be out Monday too. Probably another couple of days before winter is over too based on the pattern.
 
I'm sure it is. With storms like this, we can sometimes get a little colder air aloft to get enough sleet to mitigate the freezing rain. I NEVER want an ice storm. I can't figure out if I want it to be warmer and rain, or colder and get a dusting of snow and a ton of sleet. We've already missed 10 days of school this year. 5 for the two hurricanes, and 5 for the snow storm. I have a suspicion we will be out Monday too. Probably another couple of days before winter is over too based on the pattern.


Your best bet is to wish for warmer and rain. It’s a large warm nose. Not much hope for sleet I’m afraid.

If cmc is right you may make it to peak storm as sleet. But I’d bet it’s too cold.
 
Your best bet is to wish for warmer and rain. It’s a large warm nose. Not much hope for sleet I’m afraid.

If cmc is right you may make it to peak storm as sleet. But I’d bet it’s too cold.
Sounds right to me. I'm leaning towards more of a nuisance event until you get over to the foothills and the super CAD areas from Hickory to Mt. Airy to N. Wilksboro. It's really too close to call with the temps. If the HP is as currently depicted, I think that it could trend .5-1 degree colder and keep most of the Triad below freezing the entire event. However, 31 degrees will not have as great an impact as 27 would. Fun times as we try to nail down the details.
 
With the way the models are going, especially the short term ones, I'm starting to think there may be a chance of icing here this time. Seems like what we were missing from December may be there this time. We have the low DPs in VA area, a decent wedge and the wind direction doesn't chance at the surface while the precip is around, and the temps are dropping as the precip rolls in at the evening time and goes into the night.

I wouldn't count on it. I wouldn't totally discount it, but I think we're setting ourselves up for another 33-34° rain unfortunately. Tho, you being in the NE part of the county stand a better chance than me in the NW part. Fingers crossed. I just want some pic-worthy ice on trees and stuff.
 
SREF mean qpf increased again at GSO. That's probably a sign that the NAM will increase its qpf, too. We'll see shortly.
 
With the way the models are going, especially the short term ones, I'm starting to think there may be a chance of icing here this time. Seems like what we were missing from December may be there this time. We have the low DPs in VA area, a decent wedge and the wind direction doesn't chance at the surface while the precip is around, and the temps are dropping as the precip rolls in at the evening time and goes into the night.
Yep and with any decent CAD it would almost certainly be a few degrees colder than forecast. A great example would be from 2015 when we were only supposed to get rain here and in all areas south of I-85 in upstate SC. As it turned out we got sleet here where I am with temps dropping into the upper 20's with serious icing as far south as Greenwood SC.
 
Looks reasonably consistent at this range.
SREF mean qpf increased again at GSO. That's probably a sign that the NAM will increase its qpf, too. We'll see shortly.
what is the qpf mean at gso now? 18z euro was around .7-.8”. This has potential if the temps stay down.
TW
 
Yep and with any decent CAD it would almost certainly be a few degrees colder than forecast. A great example would be from 2015 when we were only supposed to get rain here and in all areas south of I-85 in upstate SC. As it turned out we got sleet here where I am with temps dropping into the upper 20's with serious icing as far south as Greenwood SC.

It's likely a whole different story for you in the upstate. You will probably get ice out of this, possibly significant depending on timing of precip before the warm nose really sets in.
 
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