me and Mack. I will gladly eat crow if that happens. If the NAM continues to strengthen the wedge tomorrow then there may be something to it. No need for us on the fringe to get all hot and bothered just yet
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Wintry The Webber/1300m/Kylo/Jon/Whatalife Storm January 12th-14th
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drfranklin
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bullseye - that's DT Greenville
Jessy89
Member
Ok so here in upstate sc. if some of these models verify. A lot of people won’t see this thing coming. Of course I don’t believe up to .5 ice falls in upstate South Carolina. But just a day who looked like only nc was getting a ice storm. Now the door is opening for upstate sc. however Chris justice says just a cold rain
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snowlover91
Member
At this point as we get in range of the mesoscale models the 12km NAM, 3km NAM and RGEM will be the top 3 models to watch closely as they will pick up on CAD better. The RGEM has a cold bias at the end of it's range and the NAM sometimes has a dry bias, keep those in mind. Having said that the signs I'm seeing from all 3 suggest a pretty icy situation not only for Western NC but parts of SC and northern GA possibly if trends continue. The 18z GFS also came in colder and it has a pretty big warm bias I've noticed in past CAD events, probably one of the worst models for it.
Jessy89
Member
National weather service in Gsp is saying this.. anyone care to explain why the national weather service out of Gsp says models are warming. When Nam cmc Rgem comes in cold. Not sure what national weather service is seeing but they better hope there not wrong.
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Oconeexman
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And me..serious warm nose showing up
esking76
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It's probably based on guidance from 6z and 12z today. If the trends on the 18z runs continue with the 00z runs they will probably adjust.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Just some FYI, lived here all my life and always leading up to a CAD event, the surface temps continue to trend down. Always. Only weather phenomena more sure than the NW trend.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Not surprising, 18Z FV3 came in colder
ForsythSnow
Moderator
And the NAM was decent last time so I would give it some weight. Those DPs further north up in VA are what will help fuel the wedge we didn't have last time.
FV3 tidbits snow map is laughably bad
Kylo
Member
As pointed out it’s ice in NC but look at trend of frozen shifting. Last 6 runs of FV.
Avalanche
Member
At this rate it might include Chatham and Orange by tomorrow night. It's still within reason that the western Triangle area could have a brief accrual or glaze before temps moderate.
Huh. 18z FV3 has me in an isolated pocket of snow at hour 42
I thought I was out of the game on this one, but this isn't how I wanted to get back in it.
Just in case.....
Fountainguy97
Member
just took a look at current obs. Everything seems to be right on track. Pressure slowly falling in northern TX and Panhandle of OK just as modeled.
We should have a weak LP and 850mb low to track tomorrow morning.
We should have a weak LP and 850mb low to track tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow looks to be more cloudy than expected, just on this evenings observation ! Keep tomorrow colder than expected and it should snowball from rhere