Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Elephant trunk tor on the ground in Las Vegas, NM
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The June Thread 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Oh I hope we get that tropical system next weekend .. would be a big rain maker and actually kick drought away but if not we will just have to fight it day by day with daily storms
GFS is excited about it
GFS is excited about it
Those profiles on Monday is about as good as you can get for microbursts, even if you took a couple 1000 joules of cape off that 
Lostnthaweather85
Member
Pics never do these justice.
Oh dear god, make it stop...
000
FXUS64 KFWD 131106
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
606 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Monday/
Another decaying complex of storms has continued to progress
southeastward toward North Texas. While the vigor of this complex
is much less than that of last night, it has overachieved as a
large cold pool has allowed it to progress quickly to the
southeast. While it does appear that most of the complex will
dissipate completely prior to its arrival into North Texas,
there`s enough of a risk that 20-30 PoP have been advertised near
and north of the US HWY 380 corridor. For some areas, gusty winds
are possible as outflow continues to scoot east and southeastward.
Otherwise, some patchy fog has developed within the lower Trinity
River Valley across portions of Henderson, Anderson, Navarro and
Freestone counties. Visibility may fall down to near 2 miles in
spots. Fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise.
In the near term...I increased sky coverage for a majority of the
area as the cirrus canopy from the decaying complex overspreads
the area. I feel confident that this cloud cover will thin enough
such that highs in the low to mid 90s are still achievable. If
not---then MaxT grids will need to be nudged downward.
This afternoon, it appears that the risk for additional showers
and thunderstorms to develop has increased from originally
thought. Radar imagery from western Oklahoma shows a well defined
mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). Short term high-resolution
model guidance has resolved this feature well and advertises an
increase in showers/storms generally west of I-35. I`ve cautiously
nudged PoPs upward for late this afternoon and into the evening
hours given the poor performance of guidance over the past several
days. However, with the MCV quite apparent, I do have confidence
that showers/storms will develop somewhere across the region.
Given the abundance of moisture and thus instability, a small
cluster may evolve and dive southward out of Oklahoma---steered
along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. The severe
weather risk doesn`t appear overly high given the paltry deep
layer shear values; however, daytime heating may promote steep
low-level lapse rates and thus a risk for strong to near-severe
caliber wind gusts.
000
FXUS64 KFWD 131106
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
606 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021
...New Short Term, Aviation...
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Monday/
Another decaying complex of storms has continued to progress
southeastward toward North Texas. While the vigor of this complex
is much less than that of last night, it has overachieved as a
large cold pool has allowed it to progress quickly to the
southeast. While it does appear that most of the complex will
dissipate completely prior to its arrival into North Texas,
there`s enough of a risk that 20-30 PoP have been advertised near
and north of the US HWY 380 corridor. For some areas, gusty winds
are possible as outflow continues to scoot east and southeastward.
Otherwise, some patchy fog has developed within the lower Trinity
River Valley across portions of Henderson, Anderson, Navarro and
Freestone counties. Visibility may fall down to near 2 miles in
spots. Fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise.
In the near term...I increased sky coverage for a majority of the
area as the cirrus canopy from the decaying complex overspreads
the area. I feel confident that this cloud cover will thin enough
such that highs in the low to mid 90s are still achievable. If
not---then MaxT grids will need to be nudged downward.
This afternoon, it appears that the risk for additional showers
and thunderstorms to develop has increased from originally
thought. Radar imagery from western Oklahoma shows a well defined
mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). Short term high-resolution
model guidance has resolved this feature well and advertises an
increase in showers/storms generally west of I-35. I`ve cautiously
nudged PoPs upward for late this afternoon and into the evening
hours given the poor performance of guidance over the past several
days. However, with the MCV quite apparent, I do have confidence
that showers/storms will develop somewhere across the region.
Given the abundance of moisture and thus instability, a small
cluster may evolve and dive southward out of Oklahoma---steered
along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. The severe
weather risk doesn`t appear overly high given the paltry deep
layer shear values; however, daytime heating may promote steep
low-level lapse rates and thus a risk for strong to near-severe
caliber wind gusts.
It’s very interesting that the official NWS reporting station closest to me, Monroe, has not recorded a 90 degree temperature since 5/28. It is forecasted to reach 90 on both Monday and Tuesday this week, but if it doesn’t, it may be another 7-10 days until it does.
cd2play
Member
Yet here in Nashville, it hit 96 yesterday. ?
Z
Zander98al
Guest
It was super hot in Memphis yesterday where I was at. Instant sweating as soon as you step out lol
Dewpoint Dan
Member
And 93 in Indianapolis yesterday. Lower humidity is arriving today thankfully.
There’s been no shortage of humidity here. In fact my 66 dewpoint right now is the lowest it’s been in 10 days
Been seeing lots of talk about that stuff off the Carolina coast, but looking at the upper level pattern, it doesn’t even look favorable for a tropical system , this looks more like a natural weak mid latitude type thing
yea no lol 
yea no lol Brad P posted on Facebook a little while ago about. He says he would be suprised to see a Depression or Tropical Storm there, but I agree with you… looking at the satellite it looks like if anything maybe a subtropical system
Gotta agree with eric here, this just seems apart from how a regular warm core or even st storm would form, looks like a weaker mid latitude system developing off the mid/upper level trough
LickWx
Member
Isn’t that how we grow our systems anyhow? If it hangs around long enough would it not start developing some hybrid features at the very least?
It takes days for that process to happen
First off that strong trough that’s forecasted to dive around the EC next week will squash any chance of that, the upper level wind pattern will be super unfavorable, and this look aloft doesn’t look tropical at all, what typically forms a TC is a front stalling and getting trapped under ridging with weak wind shear aloft and/or a anticyclone in the upper levels, none of that this time, except for a strong trough and a feature more reminiscent of weak mid latitude system/cyclogenesis wrt the upper level trough
Things gets messy into next weekend, but it seems plausible that we could have a bit of squeeze play between the trough to the NE and the tropical system to our SE that keeps us hot (via. compressional heating).
With the caveat of a MCS screwing things up, GFS has certainly suggested we won't get below 90*F for the extended period.
Drunk rap 
