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The June Thread 2021

Oh I hope we get that tropical system next weekend .. would be a big rain maker and actually kick drought away but if not we will just have to fight it day by day with daily storms
GFS is excited about it
 
Oh dear god, make it stop...

000
FXUS64 KFWD 131106
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
606 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Monday/

Another decaying complex of storms has continued to progress
southeastward toward North Texas. While the vigor of this complex
is much less than that of last night, it has overachieved as a
large cold pool has allowed it to progress quickly to the
southeast. While it does appear that most of the complex will
dissipate completely prior to its arrival into North Texas,
there`s enough of a risk that 20-30 PoP have been advertised near
and north of the US HWY 380 corridor. For some areas, gusty winds
are possible as outflow continues to scoot east and southeastward.
Otherwise, some patchy fog has developed within the lower Trinity
River Valley across portions of Henderson, Anderson, Navarro and
Freestone counties. Visibility may fall down to near 2 miles in
spots. Fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise.

In the near term...I increased sky coverage for a majority of the
area as the cirrus canopy from the decaying complex overspreads
the area. I feel confident that this cloud cover will thin enough
such that highs in the low to mid 90s are still achievable. If
not---then MaxT grids will need to be nudged downward.

This afternoon, it appears that the risk for additional showers
and thunderstorms to develop has increased from originally
thought. Radar imagery from western Oklahoma shows a well defined
mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). Short term high-resolution
model guidance has resolved this feature well and advertises an
increase in showers/storms generally west of I-35. I`ve cautiously
nudged PoPs upward for late this afternoon and into the evening
hours given the poor performance of guidance over the past several
days. However, with the MCV quite apparent, I do have confidence
that showers/storms will develop somewhere across the region.
Given the abundance of moisture and thus instability, a small
cluster may evolve and dive southward out of Oklahoma---steered
along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. The severe
weather risk doesn`t appear overly high given the paltry deep
layer shear values; however, daytime heating may promote steep
low-level lapse rates and thus a risk for strong to near-severe
caliber wind gusts.
 
It’s very interesting that the official NWS reporting station closest to me, Monroe, has not recorded a 90 degree temperature since 5/28. It is forecasted to reach 90 on both Monday and Tuesday this week, but if it doesn’t, it may be another 7-10 days until it does.
 
Chazwin said:
It’s very interesting that the official NWS reporting station closest to me, Monroe, has not recorded a 90 degree temperature since 5/28. It is forecasted to reach 90 on both Monday and Tuesday this week, but if it doesn’t, it may be another 7-10 days until it does.
Click to expand...
Yet here in Nashville, it hit 96 yesterday. ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Been seeing lots of talk about that stuff off the Carolina coast, but looking at the upper level pattern, it doesn’t even look favorable for a tropical system , this looks more like a natural weak mid latitude type thingView attachment 85276View attachment 85277 yea no lol View attachment 85278
Click to expand...
Brad P posted on Facebook a little while ago about. He says he would be suprised to see a Depression or Tropical Storm there, but I agree with you… looking at the satellite it looks like if anything maybe a subtropical system
 
Myfrotho704_ said:

Gotta agree with eric here, this just seems apart from how a regular warm core or even st storm would form, looks like a weaker mid latitude system developing off the mid/upper level trough
Click to expand...

Isn’t that how we grow our systems anyhow? If it hangs around long enough would it not start developing some hybrid features at the very least?
 
Lickwx said:
Isn’t that how we grow our systems anyhow? If it hangs around long enough would it not start developing some hybrid features at the very least?
Click to expand...
It takes days for that process to happen
First off that strong trough that’s forecasted to dive around the EC next week will squash any chance of that, the upper level wind pattern will be super unfavorable, and this look aloft doesn’t look tropical at all, what typically forms a TC is a front stalling and getting trapped under ridging with weak wind shear aloft and/or a anticyclone in the upper levels, none of that this time, except for a strong trough and a feature more reminiscent of weak mid latitude system/cyclogenesis wrt the upper level trough 48F594DF-22D8-405D-8C98-20EDDB7EE1A7.pngF40FB4C4-A714-4F84-AB94-15DB00508E8E.png34517631-D555-4882-B5B5-380E7A646ECF.png
 
SouthATLwx said:
The cloud debris wasn't nearly as bad as expected. On balance, it's been sunny all morning.

Already 91*F at DFW and it's not even noon.

And here's the extended forecast...

View attachment 85281

View attachment 85282
Click to expand...

Things gets messy into next weekend, but it seems plausible that we could have a bit of squeeze play between the trough to the NE and the tropical system to our SE that keeps us hot (via. compressional heating).

With the caveat of a MCS screwing things up, GFS has certainly suggested we won't get below 90*F for the extended period.
 
Gotta love that good ole juicy Oklahoma weather. 91/77 here right now. Even got a small chance of a storm developing this afternoon.
 
SD said:
Interesting posts in here today
Click to expand...
I went hiking yesterday in the uwharries . Went up morrow mountain and sugarloaf , then hiked in the national forest and worked out. I told fro to join as its 1 hour away from him but he claimed he was “ sick”. What an idiot, I told him to quit being sick , it’s that simple really.

Saw storms rolling off the backs of morrow in the distance , very nice view . I even passed through your hometown of Sanford on the way there , I was hitting 90 on that stretch of us 1 before Sanford . 0 cops there!

Edit: my bad didn’t realize this wasn’t whamby, saw some non weather posts and thought so. Darn it.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It takes days for that process to happen
First off that strong trough that’s forecasted to dive around the EC next week will squash any chance of that, the upper level wind pattern will be super unfavorable, and this look aloft doesn’t look tropical at all, what typically forms a TC is a front stalling and getting trapped under ridging with weak wind shear aloft and/or a anticyclone in the upper levels, none of that this time, except for a strong trough and a feature more reminiscent of weak mid latitude system/cyclogenesis wrt the upper level trough View attachment 85285View attachment 85286View attachment 85287
Click to expand...
NHC has the area outlined now.
A non-tropical area of low pressure has formed about 150 miles
south of Wilmington, North Carolina and is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move
northeastward for the next few days near the warm Gulf Stream,
which could allow for some tropical development to occur while it
moves away from the United States. The low should be over cold
waters south of Nova Scotia by midweek, ending its development
chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
Click to expand...
 
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