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The June Thread 2021

Flash Flood Warning
TXC113-060730-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FF.W.0013.210606T0429Z-210606T0730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1129 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Northern Dallas County in north central Texas...

* Until 230 AM CDT.

* At 1129 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
slow moving thunderstorms producing very heavy rain across
Northern Dallas County including White Rock Lake. Between 2 and 4
inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3
inches are possible. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to
begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
highways, streets, and underpasses as well as other
poor drainage and low lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Dallas, Garland, Irving, Coppell, Farmers Branch, University Park,
Sachse, Addison and Buckingham. Interstate 635, the Dallas North
Tollway, Interstate 35E, and Highway 75 may all experience urban
flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 9661 3280 9661 3280 9673 3285 9676
3286 9696 3299 9694

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

Dunn
 
1622954917820.png

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0280
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1128 PM EDT Sat Jun 05 2021

Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Far Southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060328Z - 060700Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding may continue across portions of
North Texas and far southern Oklahoma through the early overnight
hours with rainfall rates as high as 2-3"/hr.

Discussion...Deep convection is expanding across portions of
northeastern Texas late this evening, amid a highly favorable
mesoscale environment for heavy rainfall (as well as relatively
slow storm motions). SPC mesoscale analysis indicates MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg, PWATS of 1.7-1.8 inches (above the 90th percentile
for FWD), and effective bulk shear of near 20 kts. In addition,
the placement of a synoptic scale upper-level low over central TX
is providing a fair amount of divergence/diffluence aloft. These
factors, along with a weak low-level jet (20 kts) and modest
925-850 mb moisture transport, should continue to foster upscale
growth of convection over the next several hours.

The just in 00z HREF suite also suggests that convection will be
able to continue to proliferate through 06z. The probability
matched mean (PMM) QPF suggests an additional 2-3" is possible
over a fairly broad area over northeastern Dallas and points
northeastward (toward far southern Oklahoma). The current
convective trends bear this out, as radar and satellite imagery
depict continued storm mergers and outflow enhanced convergence
over an analyzed region of deep moisture convergence. 00z HREF
40-km neighborhood probabilities suggest a 30% chance of 3-inch
exceedance over the next several hours. This 3-inch exceedance has
already been realized just north of Dallas (near Allen, TX),
according to dual-pol radar estimates via KFWS (as well as MRMS
3-hr QPF through 03z) which depicts an area where 5+ inches of
rain has already fallen. Hydrologically, much of the surrounding
area is already relatively saturated, as NASA SPoRT-LIS soil
moisture percentiles average above the 70th percentile.

Given these latest convective trends, the 00z CAM output, and
antecedent soil conditions, flash flooding will continue to be
possible through 07z. Of particular concern is the prospect of
convection backward-propagating farther into the Dallas-Fort Worth
metro area, given the relatively slow storm motions and high
rainfall rates.

Churchill

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON 34419564 33729483 33089509 32539528 32259549
32669634 32599722 33119720 33639707 33909665
34369628
 
Insane weather day yesterday in Goose Creek and Summerville as the seabreeze boundary combined with several boundaries anchored a strong to severe line over the area for 2 hours... also had hail 3 times (0.50" to 1" diameter measured by me).
Widespread 5" to 8" rainfall from Goose Creek and Summerville. Knightsville 8.10" and it was still raining at that report.

Short video clips from Friday and Saturday


196444009_4222246137797815_361055371390619523_n.png
 
Last edited:
Gfs/CMC is consistent with a storm in the gulf. Tropical discussion is fixing to get busy next week
 
Webberweather53 said:
Stick your head in the oven, surely that’ll feel nice and cool! It’s the equivalent of a dry heat
Click to expand...

I've been out west in the desert and I think people have the misconception that because it's dry, it doesn't feel as bad. It's not even remotely accurate. I was in Phoenix for a couple of days and the temp was 115. It was miserable. They don't have many trees so you have no shade once so ever. It really is like pulling food at the oven and that wave of heat just smacks you.
 
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