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Pattern The Great December Dump

Wow ... the agreement speaks for its self ... notice how the energy stays back and punches off a little bit on this Gfs run ... could be a new trend
 

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Here is 06z GFS totals. This will change and as Eric has pointed out the euro and EPS are not on board with this solution.
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I know most are focused on the upcoming storms but I’m curious how we’re looking down the road around Christmas and after. Do we maintain our pattern, get warmer, get colder? Any guesses?
 
Don’t forget about the NAVGEM. So we have GFS/JMA/NAVGEM vs UK/Euro

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We usually know how this story, which has played out so many times before, ends. But I'll reserve judgment until today's Euro run to see if it wiggles any.

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We usually know how this story, which has played out so many times before, ends. But I'll reserve judgment until today's Euro run to see if it wiggles any.

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Until about two years ago it was like Groundhog Day. But since the euro was dethroned, not so much the case anymore.
 
I want some winter weather but I wouldn’t go with the gfs that is changing more than the euro. The truth may be in between with little ice to cold rain maybe heavy at times.
 
Just minor. I would expect the GFS to cave after a couple more runs. This is in the Euro/EPS wheelhouse.
Typically I would say yes given precedent. However, in these marginal cases I have seen the off hour models pick up on the trend first that leads to a different outcome. 12Z models will be interesting.
 
Looks like Euro might be coming around @ 6z
 
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