Read my mind I was about to post that. Sure would like to see the euro with something similar before getting excited
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Yeah, surface temps would be slightly above freezing for most areas getting snow. As depicted, it would be huge flakes that did more melting than sticking. I still wouldn't complain. One thing to look at is if our initial cold air can stay locked in and stay cold/dry. Some dew points the day before are in the teens and that's the one positive I can see at this point (..dealing with surface temps).
Jessy89
Member
If we can just trend a little colder. Might sneak out a north of 85 event for NE Ga/Upstate SC. I doubt it happens but it only take a few degrees.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yeah that little closed low had nice backside CAA with 850s below 0C which really helped us out once moisture blossomed here
The 18z ICON does have some snow mixing into parts of NC.
Starting to get a feeling some places with this event may see some first wet snowflakes mix in the rain, nothing significant at all (unless you go to the mountains), some gefs members show this with some initial light R/S mix and the ICON/GFS/CMC support this
I'd like to see the euro/eps get on board with anything out this way. That being said gotta like the gfs with the strong upper wave and weak 850 low passing through SC. In a perfect scenario we could get a heavy enough initial push of precip to wet bulb what's left of the air mass and generate a decent area of snow
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Tied to that stronger/better trough near Canada/ 50/50 getting better
Man I hope this shiznit is wrong.
RollTide18
Member
Yeah the GFS looks like dog crap in the LR
NoSnowATL
Member
It will be, I think I saw it was avg around 10% 7-14 days out.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Last edited:
Well, if we get the fantasy storm it showed at D6-7 I wouldn’t complain, LOL.
Interesting setup, I guess we’ll see what happens. I haven’t paid this system much attention yet, but maybe I should. Maybe we have a five percent chance of it working out?
I’m actually going to be in Greensboro this weekend for Christmas.
Yeah I still think the 6 day deal is a low low low prob thing. But you can never say never, I guess. Love the avatar!
packfan98
Moderator
James is bringing the old time mojo! I always remember reading your observations from High Point trying to dig out what was coming next for me. Good times!
Yes!
I guess to clarify I will be in northern High Point this weekend near the airport, just like old times. So maybe we can do that again, haha.
Well if u took about 2 minutes and looked at the post a couple posts above yours you will see the deterministic model (the one everyone seems to think has 100% accuracy after day 1 when in reality it’s crap) has a largely positive EPO while it’s ensembles has large scale support for a robust negative EPO in the same medium and long range ... the Gfs I believe will change drastically once it gets a grip of the situation
until then don’t get caught up in every single deterministic run ??
I’ve seen worse..seasonal ain’t so bad.. the bad thing is, and this might make the weenies mad, the GFS at 384hr is wrong and it will probably verify much worse..but maybe not..but probably
Does anyone have the 18z euro or eps
Yep, those are now necessary to track short term changes at H5 like our 50/50 low and the energy with that storm of interest, so someone spill the beans ?
NoSnowATL
Member
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
EURO, a bit slower and weaker. EPS has one more frame left, I'll post that when it's done.
18z
12z
EPS, Not bad, a bit less condensed but about the same, although most snow seems to be in the mountains, maybe a tick northEURO, a bit slower and weaker. EPS has one more frame left, I'll post that when it's done.
18z
12z
18z
12z
BHS1975
Member
The long range HRRR4 goes out to 48hrs.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NCSNOW
Member
Greensboro is runing -0.4 halfway into the month of December as of today. Saw it brought up earlier post.
I was looking over the Euro from today and there's some things to think about. The Euro is suggesting there will be CAD in place due to a high off to the northeast offshore. With a strong ULL to the south and CAD in place, there could be an increase of confluence for the CAD area's, meaning deeper colder air would pull from the northeast, hence the Euro ENS is showing snow for the CAD area's. If the cold air hangs on long enough, there could be a lot of snow (check the Euro ENS that Kylo posted above) I think with a strong ULL like that over the extreme northern GOM and the wedge in place, I do think deeper colder air would pull from the northeast. The map that I added is valid this upcoming Sunday at midnight. Surface air temps (as of now from the Euro) will be in the upper 30s/lower 40s across Northern Georgia, Upstate SC, temps would be at freezing or slightly below for western NC and mid to upper 30s for central NC. So, of course, wet bulb would be at play too, so there could be dynamic cooling to decrease those 850 temps as well as surface temps. 
Yea euro been hinting at CAD for past few days if you watch the isobars bend.
Jessy89
Member
If we got CAD wouldn’t it trend colder closer to time?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
This might be a better icon run, stronger wave entering the Rockies, and stronger confluence, only issue is it’s a little slower
Icon coming with a much different look. Still probably a crap salad for mby but I’m intrigued 
Yes it could, anything is possible. You know the saying, "an ULL is a weatherman's woe!"
Yup, the 0z ICON isn't looking that bad actually.
Jessy89
Member
The position of the high on the ICON is better
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Gonna be close for NC, but the energy is moving NE now at 108 ? 
ICON thru 126
ICON looks so good for track, so close to snow in NC with sfc temps in the 30s and 850s near freezing
Jessy89
Member
I’m honestly surprised the icon wasn’t colder. The High wasn’t In a bad position I didn’t think.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk