Pattern The Great December Dump

[KyloG]

Typically I would say yes given precedent. However, in these marginal cases I have seen the off hour models pick up on the trend first that leads to a different outcome. 12Z models will be interesting.

Op Euro is going the wrong way for several runs now. It would be surprising, very surprising if the GFS were to beat the Euro at this range. This is really a day 3 modeling deal...we will know by day 3 if there is enough spacing between the digging trough and the southern wave.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Op Euro is going the wrong way for several runs now. It would be surprising, very surprising if the GFS were to beat the Euro at this range. This is really a day 3 modeling deal...we will know by day 3 if there is enough spacing between the digging trough and the southern wave.

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Looks like it’s own ensemble is starting to disagree with it.

 

[KyloG]

Looks like EPS and GEFS both agree on maybe some sort of reshuffling towards 3rd week of Dec into Xmas. Still no signs of a torchy atlantic ridge though.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Looks like EPS and GEFS both agree on maybe some sort of reshuffling towards 3rd week of Dec into Xmas. Still no signs of a torchy atlantic ridge though.

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Yea that time period definitely has my attention, I believe that’s what Bamwx has been pushing.


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[BHS1975]

Looks like EPS and GEFS both agree on maybe some sort of reshuffling towards 3rd week of Dec into Xmas. Still no signs of a torchy atlantic ridge though.

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I’m amazed at how similar the euro and gfs look these days.


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[Weatherlover92]

I`m a little confused here. I've been working 6 days a week lately so I have been trying to keep up before and after work. Are we honing in on first wave or the second one on Friday? Also didn't the Euro run from couple days ago the first to show anything for late next week? I would imagine if the GFS/NAVGEM/CMC/JMA are going in on the CAD sleet/freezing rain solution late next week the Euro will possibly reverse back around maybe not to that extreme, but within that range. Friday is 6 days away, we're technically not in the Euro's wheelhouse yet. If the Euro hasn't reverse course by Monday, perhaps 12z Tuesday it's likely a done deal. I can't trust the Goofus and it's clownish allies to score a coup. lol

 

[Arcc]

Looks like EPS and GEFS both agree on maybe some sort of reshuffling towards 3rd week of Dec into Xmas. Still no signs of a torchy atlantic ridge though.

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When the PV is on our side of the globe and the second strongest low on earth is the Aleutian low, it's not a bad look at all.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

To that end, here's the week of Christmas from the CFS:

 

[Ethan80963]

Did Columbia SC get an increased for midlands?

Sorry I didn’t see this earlier here it is

 

[Brick Tamland]

Interesting

 

[Jessy89]

Me and the wife’s headed to Gatlinburg/Pigeon forge Dec 26-28th for a vow renewal ceremony. I wouldn’t mind having a white vow renewal ceremony that be magic!


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[Arcc]

To that end, here's the week of Christmas from the CFS:

It has the SE a good bit below normal for two weeks... The world is ending.

 

[wxdaniel]

What a tall western ridge! I wouldn't be surprised if New England scored with a storm that week with that look.

 

[Jon]

Interesting

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A lot of those automated forecasts are actually tied into GFS data, so you’re likely just looking at the gfs here. No human input if it’s auto generated.


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[Meteorologist1999]

Sorry I didn’t see this earlier here it is
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Thanks man could you include Columbia for now on when you post these?

 

[Webberweather53]

Just small differences make or break this. Latest 6z EPS vs 6z GEFS

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seen many cases like this where the vort max ends up becoming stronger in NWP in the short range so I’m hesitant to discount the GEFS atm. A stronger shortwave would also result in said wave slowing down which is what we want to score here to create more separation. The EPS northern stream evolution with a stronger southern stream wave like the GEFS shows would be ideal.

 

[malak05]

For what it's worth the 12z NAM artic cold push is a good bit further south and tilted westward then the 6z GFS at hour 84 would have a impact on the first overrunning event if played out

 

[Webberweather53]

seen many cases like this where the vort max ends up becoming stronger in NWP in the short range so I’m hesitant to discount the GEFS atm. A stronger shortwave would also result in said wave slowing down which is what we want to score here to create more separation. The EPS northern stream evolution with a stronger southern stream wave like the GEFS shows would be ideal.

Our s/w should be adequately sampled by tomorrow’s 12z runs, I’m sure that will help in some regard

 

[crecre9]

Fwiw GEFS mean is much more than the 0z was. Beware this changes other frozen p-types to snow
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It's much less for other areas, like AL and TN

 

[wxdaniel]

It's much less for other areas, like AL and TN

AL best chance would be the overrunning threat early next week. the second threat (Friday) looks to be confined to the Carolinas (for now). As webber mention we need it to slow down and begin separation from that pesky northern stream.