pretty obvious trend on the gfs.
Let’s see what 12z has for us.
NAM 12z also supports the SW holding together longer over Texas
Let’s see what 12z has for us.
NAM 12z also supports the SW holding together longer over Texas
Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
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I just looked at the GFS for the first time this year after seeing snow on my weather app for Friday. What the hell is going on lol! I guess I’m back!
Some on the gefs members has some fozen mix in Alabama, I believe only because cold air moving in quicker and the storm slowing down. Also couple of frames showing back side snow, but it all will change for better or worse
This is the first run I believe that the 12z Icon has the tail end forms a low in the gulf.
From the early looks of it, the GFS seems better. the S/W is in the same position but SW and stronger. The NS is looking faster, a bit less connection.
Didn't the GFS have a pretty bad problem with overdoing things like this last year when it was the Fv3? Did that ever get resolved before it went into operation? Been gone awhile trying to see if things have been addressed.
long range yes. But this is inside 100hrs. Our SW is coming onshore this is a classic time for a trend like this as our SW is coming into focus.
if we get 12z support from Gefs and gfs again then this is most likely legit. Euro would seal the deal.
When the core was implemented several months ago, The algorithms were corrected on the current version of the GFS. However, it has been noted the cold bias the GFS has it outputted more then 5days out.
12z gfs held firm. Vort stays together even longer. It is 50-100 miles north though and we will see a shift north in the QPF and temps.
another major winter storm coming on this run
another major winter storm coming on this run
Looks like the hp hit a wall and didn’t move east enough to establish any cold so temps are in the low 40’s to start the event. But finally temps get cold enough and frozen precip is showing up.
precip doesn't extend as south, but snow goes further into NC this run
D
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FWIW: The ICON has a similar look to the GFS with respects to the position of the high; it's just lacking the initial moisture over the SE. All in all, not bad trends if you like ice in the Carolina Piedmont. It would be nice to see the EURO shift to the GFS.