Pattern The Great December Dump

[WxWatch]

12z GFS run is better and as meet my expectations. What is happening is, due to the polar and STJ convergence, this will trigger a low in the Gulf early as Wednesday just as I predicted. The low would be underneath the high and track underneath the jet. I'd expect the better trend to continue.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk

 

[wxdaniel]

Looks like eastern upstate sc to northern midlands see a good storm. Western upstate not so much. However I question the placement of the high. Because just yesterday it was sliding out fast and today it’s slower. Of course the next run will be different again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That's only because the heaviest QPF is modeled on the OP to fall over the W Carolinas. That will change.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[J.C.]

Looks like eastern upstate sc to northern midlands see a good storm. Western upstate not so much. However I question the placement of the high. Because just yesterday it was sliding out fast and today it’s slower. Of course the next run will be different again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don't recall ever seeing CAD push south into central South Carolina, but not the western Piedmont and northeastern Georgia. I've lived several years in both areas.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

12z GFS run is better and as meet my expectations. What is happening is, due to the polar and STJ convergence, this will trigger a low in the Gulf early as Wednesday just as I predicted. The low would be underneath the high and track underneath the jet. I'd expect the better trend to continue.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk

Do you expect a NW trend to occur?

 

[Mitch West]

I don't recall ever seeing CAD push south into central South Carolina, but not the western Piedmont and northeastern Georgia. I've lived several years in both areas.

Agree, that’s why it’s wrong to a degree. When the CAD pushes clear through Columbia, it most of the time makes it to Atlanta.

 

[FamouslyHot]

For ice storms, I much prefer using pivotalweather over tropicaltidbits. This should give a more accurate idea of precip amounts compared to the tropicaltidbits algorithm.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

 

[Ethan80963]

CMC

 

[Jessy89]

Agree, that’s why it’s wrong to a degree. When the CAD pushes clear through Columbia, it most of the time makes it to Atlanta.

The push of CAD seems way off from past events.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Meteorologist1999]

The push of CAD seems way off from past events.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The push of CAD seem like it may push into central SC which haven’t happened in recent years.

 

[Ollie Williams]

CMC
View attachment 27371

Worse look. I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS caved eventually.

 

[wxdaniel]

CMC
View attachment 27371

I'm not sure why some look at the CMC. Can you tell me what has the CNC done for us lately. I read somewhere they are due for an update next year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[accu35]

Cmc seems better with a colder push

 

[Rain Cold]

Ignore the placement and boundaries of frozen precipitation right now. Is the high in a favorable position and of favorable strength to deliver cold air into the damming regions through the event? Is the source region cold? Is there plenty of precipitation? Is the pattern supportive of those things? If all of those things are favorable, wintry precip will be expensive and damming will be more intense than currently modeled.

 

[accu35]

I'm not sure why some look at the CMC. Can you tell me what has the CNC done for us lately. I read somewhere they are due for an update next year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Your right, but I've seen the cmc out do other models in events like this. I look at it to compare with other models and plus it's a model to look at

 

[Ollie Williams]

I'm not sure why some look at the CMC. Can you tell me what has the CNC done for us lately. I read somewhere they are due for an update next year.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The CMC has been doing better than the GFS. I'm not saying its right, the American model solutions are on an island by themselves.

CMC has what you don't want to see.

 

[Ethan80963]

I don’t normally look at the JMA either but I’ve seen some post it so here it is

 

[wxdaniel]

Ignore the placement and boundaries of frozen precipitation right now. Is the high in a favorable position and of favorable strength to deliver cold air into the damming regions through the event? Is the source region cold? Is there plenty of precipitation? Is the pattern supportive of those things? If all of those things are favorable, wintry precip will be expensive and damming will be more intense than currently modeled.

All good questions to ask ourselves the next three Euro suite runs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[wxdaniel]

The CMC has been doing better than the GFS. I'm not saying its right, the American model solutions are on an island by themselves.
View attachment 27372

Thank you for this data.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Tarheel1]

I don’t normally look at the JMA either but I’ve seen some post it so here it is
View attachment 27373

Another bad trend! GFS on an island! Sad really

 

[ATLwxfan]

CMC was all over the December 2017 wonderfulness. I know not to focus so much on p-type placement right now but this is trending in the wrong direction for metro ATL. Could be a nice bag of mixed precip for a Carolina Crusher.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk