Pattern The Great December Dump

[Myfrotho704_]

Just for clarification, this is a totally different setup advertised by the FV3.

Yep, classic cyclogenesis on the base of a trough off the coast, wayyyy different setup, this disagreement vs other models is madness

 

[Brick Tamland]

Congrats NC and NE SC
View attachment 27038

And here we go with the sequel. GFS showed the potential first in the long range and then lost it. Euro comes on board today, and now the GFS is coming back in line. It has happened time and time again with the models and winter storms here.

 

[Arcc]

Idk bout a winter storm but it’s a step in the right direction fasho View attachment 27034

Yep, interesting indeed.

Oh and the second threat the GFS is showing would coincide with the probable threat just after day ten on the 12z Euro.

Big western ridge plus PV lobe over the Hudson is game on signal for things to at least track.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I’m not a fan of next week because I think most will be shutout with a cold rain. There could be some snow in the higher elevations but I’m not buying widespread ice that takes a unique setup which is somewhat rare when talking places like Atlanta, Charlotte or Raleigh. My confidence is very low for wintry weather but a small chance exists for now but I think mostly north of i40.

You know there’s a whole world out there beyond I-40. I could see you sounding the “Wilkes and points north” in November and April but we are entering a climo favored time period where really anybody on this board can see frozen precipitation. It snows south of I-40 sometimes

 

[mydoortotheworld]

Good grief..... What ever happened to being conservative?

December 8th, 2017 rocked Burns to his core. #NeverForget

 

[Ethan80963]

GEFS out to hr 138 let’s see how this goes

 

[WxWatch]

I'm not sure what to think (yet) about that energy that comes flying in over the central Plains at 18z Friday that gives NC snow by Saturday. I think it's having difficulty with the vorticity, cause it seems like it's all over the place now. This is why I don't use just one or two models ?

Edit: Other than that random peice of engery that comes flying in, tonight's 0z GFS is on the right track.

 

[Ethan80963]

CMC has some big changes too

 

[accu35]

Some big ones so far

 

[SETNwx]

I love 17-20.. like a night of really bad alcohol induced sexcapades.

 

[Ethan80963]

I’m seeing a GEFS member with some frozen precip all the way down the northern Florida these are gonna be a crazy next few days seeing if this continues

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Major ice storm on CMC. Models moving toward euro

 

[WxWatch]

Video?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

Yes, I'm going to create a YouTube channel, and the video's will only be available for us here at SouthernWx! I plan on uploading a video soon as possible.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Major ice storm on CMC. Models moving toward euro

According to Ryan Maue, the CMC has been doing better than the GFS

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

And let’s not forget, CADs are always undermodeled especially in traditional CAD areas.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

And let’s not forget, CADs are always undermodeled especially in traditional CAD areas.

The Canadian was throwing down heavy heavy precip and still managing to put down ice..woof worthy run there

 

[Avalanche]

Looks to me like WAA wins out. Im a novice though.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Looks to me like WAA wins out. Im a novice though.

Yeah that low the Canadian was showing was super amp’d..meh highly unlikely

 

[Avalanche]

Wish the HP would lock in the CAD, but that LP just blows it away

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Wow this only proves that the euro will probably be another fantasy run although maybe now it’s not so much a fantasy as it is a reality... also some models slowly showing what wxwatch was pointing out with the initial wave of possible snow