Only the ensembles will tell the tale
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
honestly, you'll never see MRX as aggressive as this more than 5 days out:
Tuesday Night
A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday
A 10 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.
Tuesday Night
A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday
A 10 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This 0z EPS run was only slightly better than yesterday's 0z run but obviously much worse than yesterday's amazeballs 12z suite. Need stream separation to get anything out of this.
The 06z GFS has the major winter storm!
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The slower northern stream wave is what completely screwed us over on this EPS suite, not the southern stream disturbance. We need stream separation to score here, phasing will do us absolutely no good.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 6z GFS speeds up our second wave instead of burying it into northern Mexico & now it's aptly timed with the first trough that exits stage right over Atlantic Canada.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Massive winter storm on 6Z GFS. 48 hour event.
Snowed In
Member
ajr
Member
Most of that in NC/SC/GA is ice ?
I think we're definitely in tracking mode. Even RAH is now keeping an eye on the possibility:
<from their LR discussion>
It appears a turn to sharply colder weather should occur around
Tuesday night or Wednesday. The longevity of the chill and whether
another system brings precipitation, possibly into the colder air
late week are in question. Some lower to mid 20s for lows
may arrive by Thursday or Friday.
<from their LR discussion>
It appears a turn to sharply colder weather should occur around
Tuesday night or Wednesday. The longevity of the chill and whether
another system brings precipitation, possibly into the colder air
late week are in question. Some lower to mid 20s for lows
may arrive by Thursday or Friday.
Is this an current obs thread too? The wind has been crazy over 60mph. Maybe that will help prior to any icing. 
67 mph recorded in Boone too. A huge miss by the NWS to not go with a High Wind Warning. 421 in Wilkes was literally on fire all night with powerlines down and closed.
Jessy89
Member
6z gfs is a epic history making ice storm. One that would be a major threat to human life. That’s no joke it would cripple communities
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The good news is that I would rather see it at this range vs 24hrs out. Odds are it will trend warmer or less severe than that run. Plus I noticed a heavy rain event prior to this storm which could be “skewing the models focus” one way or the other (IMO likely the temps).
How many times have we seen this and heard that over a model run. Most ice we have had was around an inch or so back in 90s. We were out of power for 8 days and trees down everywhere. However we all survived. GFS is most of the time over hyped and for ice especially. Hopefully that doesn't happen even though we are due
In quiet a bit of shock to see all the damage with sunrise. That was the worst night of sleep ever.
ATLwxfan
Member
One that will be gone by 12z. A time frame to watch no doubt but that just ain’t happening.
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About as classic as a winter storm can be around here.. most likely this is a big front end thump scenario followed by a crippling ice storm. I think by now we definitely have a storm time period to look out for on modeling ... fire up the thread????
No thread until Sunday and that’s if things continue like they are going
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Thor
Member
Hopefully everyone still remembers the snowfall shown on TT is always off. This is a Mid Atlantic and high country set up with the low placement. 