• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern The Great December Dump

Jessy89 said:
Is your prediction of a winter storm still happening? As expected


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yes it is actually, that prediction map that I posted days ago is off with the overrunning. The overrunning that I predicted is likely to come true, even though I predicted the snowfall sector too far south in area's of MS, AL and GA. Overall, my prediction of the overrunning snow sector wasn't that far off at all, margin of error does happen with predictions. I do not think the 2nd wave system should *NOT be written off at this time. Also, on that prediction map that I posted days ago, the timing was obviously off on it with the freezing rain, but I still have confidence that a significant ice storm could occur.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
WxWatch said:
Yes it is actually, that prediction map that I posted days ago is off with the overrunning. The overrunning that I predicted is likely to come true, even though I predicted the snowfall sector too far south in area's of MS, AL and GA. Overall, my prediction of the overrunning snow sector wasn't that far off at all, margin of error does happen with predictions. I do not think the 2nd wave system should be written off at this time. Also, on that prediction map that I posted days ago, the timing was obviously off on it with the freezing rain, but I still have confidence that a significant ice storm could occur.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Can you do a new map for us with your current prediction?
 
Wow high in perfect position on gfs. With no moisture.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
FWIW GFS did trend heavier snow pack with first system. Can’t imagine rain there in Virginia after that...maybe more changes folks.
 
I wouldn’t rule out a damaging ice storm for Virginia. Unlikely it’s mostly rain after all that snow and cold air prior. Something seems off.
 
A rich tongue of snow from the NC mountains into DC prior to possible CAD. I know wrong thread but huge fly in the ointment here for second storm IMO. EAF61267-B35E-434F-9DB1-6421C88911F8.jpeg
 
The 0z GFS is a better run regarding the track of low versus it's 18z run. The reason why the CAD erodes away quickly is because the surface low is too far north, the low amplifies slightly and the high slides away too quick. The CAD would not erode away if there is a much weaker devloping low further south pushing moisture inland (like what the 12z CMC showed from today) and while the high holds it's position. If this was the case on the 0z GFS, there would have been significant amounts of ice for the CAD regions.
 
Almost comical the GFS trends to the (textbook track south of current snow cover theory) by bringing winter weather down further south with the second system. Very CMC like. Better hope snowpack is actually there or north the track will go resulting in rain for all.
 
CMC looking pretty much the same maybe some minor changes through hr 60 but after this energy goes more positive tilt resulting in less precip
 
Last edited:
GFS at 18z Friday after lots of precip. Somewhat alarming since this global model won’t be able to pick out the micro-climates within the CAD regime. That 32 could be more like 27 degrees for a good chunk of north-west NC. I’ve noticed the GFS has been consistent on heavy rates..idk about that but I do know it always warms up too quickly. EURO/NAM usually handle the erosion of CAD better. 71D1BC24-2A1B-4002-97CA-AB63958338E8.jpeg
 
At hr 96 CMC starting to build in precip with a 1044 hp over eastern NY CAD signal is pretty strong
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top